LI Guoqing, DONG Cun, LIANG Zhifeng, et al. Cross-provincial Two-level Optimal Scheduling Model Considering the Uncertainty of Photovoltaic Power Generation[J]. 2021, 47(12): 4420-4432.
LI Guoqing, DONG Cun, LIANG Zhifeng, et al. Cross-provincial Two-level Optimal Scheduling Model Considering the Uncertainty of Photovoltaic Power Generation[J]. 2021, 47(12): 4420-4432.DOI:
考虑光伏发电不确定性的跨省两级优化调度模型
摘要
为降低光伏出力预测不确定性对跨省优化调度运行经济性与安全性的影响
提出了一种计及光伏出力预测不确定性的跨省两级优化调度策略。首先
采用长短期记忆(long short-term memory
LSTM)神经网络作为光伏出力预测模型
通过k-means方法对多个光伏电站出力波动量进行聚类
并将聚类后的光伏出力数据集代入到LSTM模型
生成考虑空间相关性的大规模光伏日前、日内出力预测结果;其次
以日前光伏出力预测曲线和负荷需求曲线为基础
结合火电和抽水蓄能建立日前调度模型
以日前调度结果作为输入变量
进行概率潮流计算完成一级调度
基于NSGA-II算法进行多目标交直流混合系统最优潮流计算完成二级调度;最后
以国内某两省实际数据及修改的IEEE 39节点为系统算例
对光伏出力不确定环境下的两级优化调度计划进行分析。算例结果表明
所提调度策略能够协调优化两省可调度资源
降低网络运行越限风险
提高电力系统的经济性与稳定性。
Abstract
In order to reduce the impact of the uncertainty of photovoltaic output prediction on the economy and safety of cross-provincial optimal operation
a two-level optimal operation strategy is proposed
which takes into account the uncertainty of photovoltaic prediction. First
the long short-term memory(LSTM) neural network is used as the photovoltaic output prediction model. By using the k-means method
the output fluctuation of several photovoltaic power stations is clustered
and the clustered photovoltaic output data set is brought into the LSTM model to generate large-scale photovoltaic output prediction results of day-ahead and intra-day considering spatial correlation. Secondly
based on the day-ahead photovoltaic output prediction curve and load demand curve
a day-ahead dispatching model combining thermal power and pumped storage is established. The daily scheduling results are taken as input variables to carry out probabilistic power flow calculation to complete the first level scheduling. Based on the NSGA-II algorithm
the optimal power flow of multi-objective AC/DC hybrid system is calculated to complete the two-level scheduling. Finally
the actual data of two provinces and the modified IEEE 39 node are taken as the system example
and the two-level optimal scheduling plan under the environment of uncertain photovoltaic output is analyzed. The results of the calculation example show that the proposed scheduling strategy can coordinate and optimize the schedulable resources of the two provinces
reduce the risk of network operation overrun
and improve the economy and stability of the power system.