JIN Shuanglong, FENG Shuanglei, WANG Bo, et al. Applicability of Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization Schemes for Wind Field Numerical Prediction in China Northwest Power Grid[J]. 2022, 48(2): 447-455.
JIN Shuanglong, FENG Shuanglei, WANG Bo, et al. Applicability of Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization Schemes for Wind Field Numerical Prediction in China Northwest Power Grid[J]. 2022, 48(2): 447-455.DOI:
西北电网风场数值预报的大气边界层参数化方案适用性
摘要
精准的风速预报是风电功率预测的基础,风场的预报评估是提升风电功率预测水平的有效途径之一。基于中尺度数值天气预报模式(weather research and forecast
Accurate wind speed prediction is the basis of wind power forecasting
and the evaluation of wind prediction is one of the effective ways to improve wind power forecasting. Based on the mesoscale numerical weather research and forecast model(WRF)
and combined with the numerical forecast results of the Northwest Power Grid
the applicability of six kinds of planetary boundary layer parameterization schemes was studied by using quantitative analysis indicators such as threat score
correlation coefficient and root mean square error. The results show that the YSU(Yonsei University)scheme is the optimal boundary layer scheme for improving the wind field of the Northwest Power Grid
the highest average correlation coefficient of the surface zonal wind is 0.87
the lowest root mean square error is only 1.0 m/s
the forecast effect of the surface meridional wind
and 850 hPa and 500 hPa height fields
and 500 hPa wind speed is the optimal. This study points out the direction for the improvement of the forecast effect of wind field(and other meteorological elements) for Northwest Power Grid.