闫晓卿, 谭雪. 中国煤电发展合理峰值研判[J]. 中国电力, 2018, 51(4): 75-80. DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201708055
引用本文: 闫晓卿, 谭雪. 中国煤电发展合理峰值研判[J]. 中国电力, 2018, 51(4): 75-80. DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201708055
Xiaoqing YAN, Xue TAN. Peak Capacity Analysis for Coal Power Development in China[J]. Electric Power, 2018, 51(4): 75-80. DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201708055
Citation: Xiaoqing YAN, Xue TAN. Peak Capacity Analysis for Coal Power Development in China[J]. Electric Power, 2018, 51(4): 75-80. DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201708055

中国煤电发展合理峰值研判

Peak Capacity Analysis for Coal Power Development in China

  • 摘要: “十三五”是中国能源电力转型发展的关键时期,以煤电为代表的电力供应结构性过剩是亟待解决的问题之一。为此,国家能源局颁布了一系列煤电去产能政策,严控煤电发展规模。煤电发展的合理峰值、科学布局和建设时序问题受到越来越多的关注。首先全面分析了煤电去产能政策对电力行业发展、电力系统运行带来的影响。继而构建了煤电全生命周期成本模型,并将其纳入电力规划和生产模拟分析的整体流程中。最后利用上述模型,对中国“十三五”及中长期电力发展格局进行了优化。研究表明,中国煤电装机总量将于2025年前后达到峰值,发展合理峰值在11.5亿~12.0亿kW。研究成果力争进一步提升电力系统运行效率和安全性,对中国“十四五”、“十五五”电力规划及相关政策制定提供参考。

     

    Abstract: The “13th Five-Year” is the critical period for the energy reform in the power industry of China. One of the issues that requires urgent solutions is the structural oversupply of electricity power, especially the coal power. In order to ease the excessive coal power supply, policies have been introduced by the National Energy Board to control the scale of the coal power generation capacity strictly. The reasonable level of the coal power development, its scientific layout and the construction timing are becoming more and more important. In this study, the comprehensive effects of the coal power reduction policies on the power industry development and the operation of the power system are analyzed. A full-life cycle cost model of the coal power is established and integrated into the whole process of the power planning and the production simulation analysis. The pattern of electric power development in the “13th Five-Year” and the mid-long term in China are optimized by using the proposed model. The results show that the peak capacity of coal power in China should be between 1.15~1.2 billion kW around 2025. The research result is expected to be helpful to the power industry in the “14th and 15th five-year” periods, enhancing the efficiency and safety of the power system.

     

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