李丹, 贺帅, 颜伟, 胡越, 方泽仁, 梁云嫣. 考虑动态时间锚点和典型特征约束的年日均负荷曲线预测[J]. 中国电力. DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202308114
引用本文: 李丹, 贺帅, 颜伟, 胡越, 方泽仁, 梁云嫣. 考虑动态时间锚点和典型特征约束的年日均负荷曲线预测[J]. 中国电力. DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202308114
LI Dan, HE Shuai, YAN Wei, HU Yue, FANG Zeren, LIANG YunYan. Annual Daily Average Load Curve Prediction Considering Dynamic Time Anchors and Typical Feature Constraints[J]. Electric Power. DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202308114
Citation: LI Dan, HE Shuai, YAN Wei, HU Yue, FANG Zeren, LIANG YunYan. Annual Daily Average Load Curve Prediction Considering Dynamic Time Anchors and Typical Feature Constraints[J]. Electric Power. DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202308114

考虑动态时间锚点和典型特征约束的年日均负荷曲线预测

Annual Daily Average Load Curve Prediction Considering Dynamic Time Anchors and Typical Feature Constraints

  • 摘要: 基于负荷趋势性、周期性和受日历特征影响的特点,考虑动态时间锚点和典型特征约束,实现年日均负荷曲线精确预测。首先根据历史和预测年的日历关联关系建立动态时间锚点矩阵,结合标么化和周期平滑处理后获得的历史年日均负荷形状因子曲线,提出DTA-Soft-DBA方法获得预测年的日均负荷形状因子预测曲线;然后进行反标么化和反周期平滑处理,并结合电力电量特征预测值进行典型特征约束修正,获得年日均负荷预测曲线。某地区的算例结果表明,该方法具有更高的预测精度,其结果与典型特征预测值相吻合,符合年内时序变化规律。所提方法能有效整合具有不同日历特征的历史样本时序共性规律,具有合理性和可解释性。

     

    Abstract: Based on the trends, periodicity and calendar features of power load, it is realized to accurately predict the annual daily average load curves considering the dynamic time anchors and typical feature constraints, Firstly, a dynamic time anchor matrix is built based on the calendar association between the historical year and the target year. Then, based on the historical annual daily average load shape-factor curves obtained after normalization and periodic smoothing treatment, it is proposed to use the DTA-Soft-DBA to predict the target year's daily average load shape-factor curve. After inverse normalization and inverse periodic smoothing treatment, the annual daily average load prediction curves are obtained by correcting the typical feature constraints with the predicted value of power and electricity features. The case study results of an area in China show that the proposed method has higher prediction accuracy, and the results are consistent with the predicted values of typical features and the temporal variations within the target year. The proposed method can effectively integrate the common rules of historical sample time series with different calendar characteristics, which is reasonable and interpretable.

     

/

返回文章
返回