单葆国, 刘青, 张莉莉, 郑海峰, 张成龙, 吴姗姗, 薛万磊. 新形势下“十四五”后三年中国电力需求形势研判[J]. 中国电力, 2023, 56(3): 1-11. DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202302048
引用本文: 单葆国, 刘青, 张莉莉, 郑海峰, 张成龙, 吴姗姗, 薛万磊. 新形势下“十四五”后三年中国电力需求形势研判[J]. 中国电力, 2023, 56(3): 1-11. DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202302048
SHAN Baoguo, LIU Qing, ZHANG Lili, ZHENG Haifeng, ZHANG Chenglong, WU Shanshan, XUE Wanlei. Analysis of China’s Power Demand Situation in the Last Three Years of the “14th Five-Year Plan” Under the New Situation[J]. Electric Power, 2023, 56(3): 1-11. DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202302048
Citation: SHAN Baoguo, LIU Qing, ZHANG Lili, ZHENG Haifeng, ZHANG Chenglong, WU Shanshan, XUE Wanlei. Analysis of China’s Power Demand Situation in the Last Three Years of the “14th Five-Year Plan” Under the New Situation[J]. Electric Power, 2023, 56(3): 1-11. DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202302048

新形势下“十四五”后三年中国电力需求形势研判

Analysis of China’s Power Demand Situation in the Last Three Years of the “14th Five-Year Plan” Under the New Situation

  • 摘要: 中国式现代化建设、“双碳”战略落地、新型电力系统构建、电力市场化改革推进等新形势将深刻影响未来中国电力需求形势。充分考虑新形势下宏观经济、技术进步、能源转型、电力市场、气候气温等影响电力需求的因素变化趋势,采用“经济-能源-电力-环境”耦合的中长期电力需求预测模型,设置3个情景,深入研判“十四五”后三年中国电力需求增长趋势。结果表明,2023、2024、2025年,中国全社会用电量分别为9.1万亿~9.3万亿、9.4万亿~9.7万亿、9.7万亿~10.1万亿kW·h,“十四五”年均增速为5.2%~6.0%。

     

    Abstract: The new situation, such as the construction of the Chinese modernization, implementation of the “double carbon” strategy, construction of the new power system, and promotion of power market-oriented reform, will profoundly affect future power demand situation in China. With full consideration of the changing trend of macroeconomics, technological progress, energy transformation, power market, climate and temperature and other factors affecting power demand under the new situation, the medium and long-term power demand forecasting model coupled with “economy-energy-electricity-environment” is adopted to analyze the growth trend of the China’s power demand in the last three years of the “14th Five-Year Plan” (2021-2025) under three scenarios. The results show that in 2023, 2024 and 2025, China’s total social electricity consumption will be 9.1 to 9.3 trillion, 9.4 to 9.7 trillion and 9.7 to 10.1 trillion kilowatt-hours respectively, with an annual growth rate of 5.2% to 6.0% in the “14th Five-Year Plan”.

     

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