Methodology of Forecasting the Oil-immersed Transformer Over-hot Fault Tendency Based on Catastrophe Theory

The transformer over-hot fault is the most common among all kinds of transformer faults,so it is important to research the transformer over-hot fault.This paper presented a cusp catastrophe model of the transformer over-hot fault,in that the temperature of the transformer was selected as state variable and C2H4/C2H6 and CH4/H2 were chosen as control variables,the validity of this model was proved through a large number of transformer over-hot data.On the basis,the methodology of forecasting the oil-immersed transformer remaining life was presented based on catastrophe theory,by which the failure time of over-hot transformer cold be forecasted,and which was verified through two actual case of transformer.The availability and applicability of the proposed mothod was proved.