Abstract: In order to study the environmental benefits of thermal power in China under the goal of "carbon peak", starting from China 's "14th Five-Year Plan" and the long-term goal of 2035, a prediction model of environmental benefit targets is established based on the Verhulst grey model, and six scenarios are set up with the peak time from 2025 to 2030, and the CO₂, SO_2, NO_x and particulate matter (PM) emissions and emission reductions under different scenarios are calculated and analyzed. The results show that in all scenarios, the emissions of CO₂, SO₂, NO_x and PM gradually increase from 2021 to the peak year, and then decrease rapidly until 2035 after the peak. The scenarios in which CO₂ emission reductions will be positive before 2035 are the peaks in 2025 and 2026. The cumulative emission reductions of CO₂ from 2032 to 2035 are 431 million tons when peaking in 2025; the cumulative CO₂ emission reductions from 2034 and 2035 are 77 million tons when peaking in 2026; the emission reductions of SO₂, NOx and PM are positive from 2021 to 2035. The cumulative emission reductions of SO₂, NO_x and PM from 2021 to 2035 are 1 276.73, 933.02 and 268.36 million tons when peaking in 2025. The delay of the peak year will lead to a gradual decrease in the cumulative emission reductions of SO₂, NOx and PM from 2021 to 2035. Finally, the implementation path of the environmental benefit target of thermal power is proposed according to the research results.