张童彦, 廖清芬, 唐飞, 李宇, 王嘉乐, 邓晖鹏. 基于气象资源插值与迁移学习的广域分布式光伏功率预测方法[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2023, 43(20): 7929-7939. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.221950
引用本文: 张童彦, 廖清芬, 唐飞, 李宇, 王嘉乐, 邓晖鹏. 基于气象资源插值与迁移学习的广域分布式光伏功率预测方法[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2023, 43(20): 7929-7939. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.221950
ZHANG Tongyan, LIAO Qingfen, TANG Fei, LI Yu, WANG Jiale, DENG Huipeng. Wide-area Distributed Photovoltaic Power Forecast Method Based on Meteorological Resource Interpolation and Transfer Learning[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2023, 43(20): 7929-7939. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.221950
Citation: ZHANG Tongyan, LIAO Qingfen, TANG Fei, LI Yu, WANG Jiale, DENG Huipeng. Wide-area Distributed Photovoltaic Power Forecast Method Based on Meteorological Resource Interpolation and Transfer Learning[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2023, 43(20): 7929-7939. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.221950

基于气象资源插值与迁移学习的广域分布式光伏功率预测方法

Wide-area Distributed Photovoltaic Power Forecast Method Based on Meteorological Resource Interpolation and Transfer Learning

  • 摘要: 针对广域分布式新能源普遍缺乏新能源资源监测装置,而导致功率预测精度不足的问题,提出一种基于气象资源插值与迁移学习的广域分布式光伏功率预测方法。首先,基于地理信息和粗颗粒气象数据,对广域范围下的气象资源数据进行网格化插值;其次,依据插值结果对具有相同气象特征的光伏电站进行自组织映射(self-organizing maps,SOM)网络聚类,并对每一类中的光伏电站进行迁移学习的源域和目标域的划分,以保证预测精度;然后,结合长短期记忆(long short term memory,LSTM)网络,引入误差修正环节,建立源域至目标域的双迁移模型;最后,以浙江省绍兴市的分布式光伏电站为实例验证该方法的有效性。相比于对各个光伏电站单独建模,所提方法能将目标域光伏电站的训练速度提高10倍以上,且在预测精度方面也有显著提升,具有一定的推广应用价值。

     

    Abstract: To address the problem of lacking power forecast accuracy due to the general lack of new energy resource monitoring devices for wide-area distributed new energy sources, this paper proposes a wide-area distributed photovoltaic power forecast method based on meteorological resource interpolation and transfer learning. First, based on geographic information and coarse particle meteorological data, the meteorological resource data under a wide area are gridded and interpolated. Secondly, according to the interpolation results, self-organizing mapping (SOM) network clustering is carried out for photovoltaic power plants with the same meteorological characteristics, and the source domain and target domain of transfer learning are divided for photovoltaic power plants in each category, which ensures forecast accuracy. Then, combined with the long short term memory network (LSTM), an error correction link is introduced to establish a dual transfer model from the source domain to the target domain. Finally, the effectiveness of the method is verified by taking the distributed photovoltaic power station in Shaoxing City, Zhejiang Province as an example. Compared with the separate modeling of each photovoltaic power station, this method can improve the training speed of photovoltaic power stations in the target domain by more than ten times, and it also has a significant improvement in forecast accuracy, which has certain promotion and application value.

     

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