符杨, 任子旭, 魏书荣, 王洋, 黄玲玲, 贾锋. 基于改进LSTM-TCN模型的海上风电超短期功率预测[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2022, 42(12): 4292-4302. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.210724
引用本文: 符杨, 任子旭, 魏书荣, 王洋, 黄玲玲, 贾锋. 基于改进LSTM-TCN模型的海上风电超短期功率预测[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2022, 42(12): 4292-4302. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.210724
FU Yang, REN Zixu, WEI Shurong, WANG Yang, HUANG Lingling, JIA Feng. Ultra-short-term Power Prediction of Offshore Wind Power Based on Improved LSTM-TCN Model[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2022, 42(12): 4292-4302. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.210724
Citation: FU Yang, REN Zixu, WEI Shurong, WANG Yang, HUANG Lingling, JIA Feng. Ultra-short-term Power Prediction of Offshore Wind Power Based on Improved LSTM-TCN Model[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2022, 42(12): 4292-4302. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.210724

基于改进LSTM-TCN模型的海上风电超短期功率预测

Ultra-short-term Power Prediction of Offshore Wind Power Based on Improved LSTM-TCN Model

  • 摘要: 风功率精确预测是实现大规模海上风电友好并网的重要手段。大型海上风电场机组台数众多,状态各异。机组状态、尾流影响和时空特性对风功率预测的影响不可忽略。该文基于长短期神经网络(long short-term memory,LSTM)–时间卷积神经网络(temporal convolutional network,TCN),提出了一种考虑机组状态、风机尾流和场群空间分布特性的海上风电超短期功率预测方法。首先分析了机组状态和尾流数据对于功率预测的影响,然后基于LSTM建立了风电机组运行数据深度学习预测模型,实现机组健康状态到运行数据的映射,并通过数据的实时滚动对机组健康状态进行持续修正;在此基础上,加入注意力强化和随机空间特性弱化模块的改进LSTM-TCN模型。通过实际运行数据算例分析,相比TCN算法、LSTM算法,该文方法可提升风功率预测的精度,尤其对于海上常见的风速骤变工况适应性较强,对TCN算法过于强化空间特性的问题进行改进。以该模型的精确预测为基础,可进一步用于大规模海上风电场内机组的协调优化控制,提升海上风电出力可靠性。

     

    Abstract: Accurate prediction of wind power is an important means to realize friendly grid connection of large-scale offshore wind power. Large offshore wind farms have many units with different states. The influence of unit state, wake and space-time characteristics on wind power prediction cannot be ignored. Based on long short-term memory-temporal convolutional network (LSTM-TCN), an ultra-short-term power prediction method for offshore wind power was proposed in this paper, which considered the unit state, the wake of wind turbines and the spatial distribution characteristics of wind farms. Firstly, the influence of unit state and wake data on power prediction was analyzed, and then the deep learning prediction model of wind turbine operation data was established based on LSTM, which realized the mapping of unit health state to operation data, and continuously corrected the unit health state through real-time rolling of data. On this basis, the improved LSTM-TCN model was added with the modules of attention enhancement and random spatial characteristics weakening. Compared with TCN algorithm and LSTM algorithm, the proposed method could improve the accuracy of wind power prediction, especially for the common sudden change of wind speed at sea. This method improved the problem that TCN algorithm over-fits spatial characteristics. Based on the accurate prediction, it could be further used for coordinated optimization control of units in large-scale offshore wind farms, and thus improving the reliability of offshore wind power output.

     

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