许涛, 王国春, 董昱, 王超, 李增辉. 新型电力系统平衡机理及演进过程研究[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2025, 45(1): 1-13. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.240820
引用本文: 许涛, 王国春, 董昱, 王超, 李增辉. 新型电力系统平衡机理及演进过程研究[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2025, 45(1): 1-13. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.240820
XU Tao, WANG Guochun, DONG Yu, WANG Chao, LI Zenghui. Research on Power Balance Mechanism and Evolution of New Power System[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2025, 45(1): 1-13. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.240820
Citation: XU Tao, WANG Guochun, DONG Yu, WANG Chao, LI Zenghui. Research on Power Balance Mechanism and Evolution of New Power System[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2025, 45(1): 1-13. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.240820

新型电力系统平衡机理及演进过程研究

Research on Power Balance Mechanism and Evolution of New Power System

  • 摘要: 立足大电网运行实践,开展新型电力系统平衡机理及演进过程研究。构建新型电力系统平衡基本方程和高级方程,提出新型电力系统平衡的五个机理,揭示了新能源渗透率、新能源弃电率、系统调节能力等关键平衡要素间的关联关系;结合运行实践开展仿真测算和统计分析,验证了所提数学模型和平衡机理的准确性。在理论分析和仿真测算基础上,指出新型电力系统平衡的主要矛盾是不断增长的调节需求和有限的系统调节能力之间的矛盾,二者对比关系的变化构成了新型电力系统的平衡演进过程,指出新型电力系统发展将先后跨越“质变点”、“临界点”两个关键节点,对应3个主要发展阶段。最后,对新型电力系统后续发展建设方向进行了展望,提出相关建议。

     

    Abstract: Focusing on new power system's power balance mechanism and development, basic rules of power balance are revealed with theoretical analysis, simulations as well as real power system operating statistics. First, basic power balance equations of new power system are proposed, based on which senior power balance equations are deducted. With the analysis and conclusions of the proposed equations, 5 rules of new power system's power balance mechanism are proposed to describe relations among key balancing factors, such as the penetration rate of renewable energy, renewable energy consumption, and the regulation capability of the power system. Then, all the equations and rules proposed are verified by simulations and statistics based on real power system operating data. Finally, the key rule during the development of new power system's power balance is revealed, which is the contradiction between unlimited regulating demand growth of new energy and limited regulating abilities of power system. The New Power System will go through 2 key developing points and 3 key developing stages. Prospects are made for the future development and construction direction of the new power system, and relevant suggestions are put forward.

     

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