李鸿, 朱继忠, 董瀚江. 考虑协变量因素的多能微电网两阶段分布鲁棒优化调度[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2025, 45(3): 822-833. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.231253
引用本文: 李鸿, 朱继忠, 董瀚江. 考虑协变量因素的多能微电网两阶段分布鲁棒优化调度[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2025, 45(3): 822-833. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.231253
LI Hong, ZHU Jizhong, DONG Hanjiang. Two-stage Distributionally Robust Optimization Scheduling for Multi-energy Microgrid Considering Covariate Factors[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2025, 45(3): 822-833. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.231253
Citation: LI Hong, ZHU Jizhong, DONG Hanjiang. Two-stage Distributionally Robust Optimization Scheduling for Multi-energy Microgrid Considering Covariate Factors[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2025, 45(3): 822-833. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.231253

考虑协变量因素的多能微电网两阶段分布鲁棒优化调度

Two-stage Distributionally Robust Optimization Scheduling for Multi-energy Microgrid Considering Covariate Factors

  • 摘要: 为有效应对新能源出力、负荷需求等多种不确定量同时波动对多能微电网系统安全稳定运行带来的影响,提出一种考虑协变量因素的多能微电网两阶段分布鲁棒优化模型。首先,基于分布鲁棒优化方法,初步构建包含光伏发电机组、冷热电联产机组、冷热电负荷和热储能的多能微电网系统两阶段优化调度模型;然后,考虑协变量因素,建立基于多元决策树回归的Wasserstein模糊集,刻画源荷双侧不确定量之间、不确定量与协变量因素之间的内在联系;接着,运用线性决策规则及对偶定理,给出模型的混合整数线性规划形式;最后,将模型应用于33节点多能微电网系统进行算例分析。结果表明,相比于经典鲁棒优化和分布鲁棒优化模型,引入协变量因素能够有效提高模型的经济性。在蒙特卡洛样本外测试中,所提出的两阶段分布鲁棒优化模型对不确定量波动表现出良好的可靠性。

     

    Abstract: To effectively deal with the influence of multiple uncertainties such as renewable energy output and load demand on the safe and stable operation of multi-energy microgrid system, this paper proposes a two-stage distributionally robust optimization model for multi-energy microgrid system considering covariate factors. First, based on the distributionally robust optimization method, a two-stage optimal scheduling model of a multi-energy microgrid system including photovoltaic generation units, combined cooling, heat and power units, cold, heat and electric load and thermal energy storage is constructed. Then, considering covariate factors, a Wasserstein ambiguity set based on multivariate decision tree regression is established to describe the internal relationship between the uncertainty of source and load, and between the uncertainty and covariate factors. Next, using linear decision rules and duality theorem, a mixed integer linear programming form of the model is given. Finally, the model is applied to a modified 33-node multi-energy microgrid system for example analysis. The results show that the introduction of covariate factors can effectively improve the economy of the model compared with the classical robust optimization model and the distributionally robust optimization model. In the Monte Carlo out-of-sample test, the proposed two-stage distributionally robust optimization model shows good reliability in the face of uncertainty fluctuations.

     

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