姜海洋, 杜尔顺, 马佳豪, 肖晋宇, 侯金鸣, 张宁. 考虑长周期供需不平衡风险的新型电力系统规划方法[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2024, 44(15): 5845-5857. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.230440
引用本文: 姜海洋, 杜尔顺, 马佳豪, 肖晋宇, 侯金鸣, 张宁. 考虑长周期供需不平衡风险的新型电力系统规划方法[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2024, 44(15): 5845-5857. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.230440
JIANG Haiyang, DU Ershun, MA Jiahao, XIAO Jinyu, HOU Jinming, ZHANG Ning. Power System Optimal Planning Method Considering Long-term Imbalance Risk[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2024, 44(15): 5845-5857. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.230440
Citation: JIANG Haiyang, DU Ershun, MA Jiahao, XIAO Jinyu, HOU Jinming, ZHANG Ning. Power System Optimal Planning Method Considering Long-term Imbalance Risk[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2024, 44(15): 5845-5857. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.230440

考虑长周期供需不平衡风险的新型电力系统规划方法

Power System Optimal Planning Method Considering Long-term Imbalance Risk

  • 摘要: 受高比例新能源并网带来的波动性和间歇性影响,新型电力系统的长周期供需不平衡矛盾日益突出。该文将电力系统的长周期供需不平衡风险分为两部分:连续多日无风无光的极端天气场景和月电量供需不平衡风险。首先,选取连续多日无风无光的极端天气场景,提出基于条件风险价值理论(conditional value at risk,CvaR)的月电量不平衡风险评估模型。在此基础上,提出考虑长周期供需不平衡风险的新型电力系统规划方法,通过季节性储能等灵活性资源的优化配置,可有效提升电力系统的长周期平衡能力。最后,基于IEEE RTS-79算例分析论证了所提方法的有效性,并初步讨论季节性储能在平抑长周期供需不平衡风险方面的作用。

     

    Abstract: The increasing renewable penetration in the power system results in the long-term imbalance of the power system. This paper divides the long-term imbalance risk of the power system into two parts: the continuous low- renewable-output event and the long-term monthly energy supply imbalance risk. First, this paper selects the continuous low-renewable-output scenario and proposes a monthly electricity imbalance risk assessment model based on the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) theory. On this basis, a power system planning method considering long-term imbalance risk is proposed. Through the optimal allocation of flexible resources such as seasonal energy storage, the long-term adequacy of the power system could be effectively improved. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is proved based on the case studies on the IEEE RTS-79 system and the role of seasonal energy storage in mitigating long-term imbalance risk is discussed.

     

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