叶林, 李奕霖, 裴铭, 李卓, 徐勋建, 陆佳政. 寒潮天气小样本条件下的短期风电功率组合预测[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2023, 43(2): 543-554. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.221814
引用本文: 叶林, 李奕霖, 裴铭, 李卓, 徐勋建, 陆佳政. 寒潮天气小样本条件下的短期风电功率组合预测[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2023, 43(2): 543-554. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.221814
YE Lin, LI Yilin, PEI Ming, LI Zhuo, XU Xunjian, LU Jiazheng. Combined Approach for Short-term Wind Power Forecasting Under Cold Weather With Small Sample[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2023, 43(2): 543-554. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.221814
Citation: YE Lin, LI Yilin, PEI Ming, LI Zhuo, XU Xunjian, LU Jiazheng. Combined Approach for Short-term Wind Power Forecasting Under Cold Weather With Small Sample[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2023, 43(2): 543-554. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.221814

寒潮天气小样本条件下的短期风电功率组合预测

Combined Approach for Short-term Wind Power Forecasting Under Cold Weather With Small Sample

  • 摘要: 寒潮作为一种典型气象灾害,其对风电以及以风电主体的新型电力系统的安全运行带来了极大挑战,而针对性的提供准确的风电功率预测将是有效的应对措施。为此,该文提出一种寒潮天气小样本条件下的短期风电功率组合预测方法。首先定义寒潮天气事件并分析风电出力特点。针对寒潮天气下样本数据稀缺而难以建模的问题,采用TimeGAN算法来丰富气象和功率样本。然后,分别基于XGBoost和Transformer算法建立风电功率基准值和损失值预测模型,以量化表征寒潮天气下的理论出力和功率缺额。另外,结合风机保护控制参数,提出一种基于注意力机制的Seq2Seq二分类模型来预判功率损失是否发生,通过提取风电功率损失时段进行针对性组合预测。最后,分别通过以大风、强降雨、大风与强降雨相结合为代表气象的寒潮天气事件进行测试,相比于常规预测模式,该文方法在寒潮天气下表现出良好的预测性能。

     

    Abstract: As a typical meteorological disaster, the cold wave weather poses a great challenge to the safe operation of wind power and the new power system with wind power as the main body. Providing accurate wind power prediction will be an effective response. For this reason, this paper presents a combined short-term wind power prediction method under cold weather with small samples. First, the cold wave weather events are defined and the characteristics of wind power output are analyzed. To solve the problem that sample data is scarce and difficult to model in cold weather, TimeGAN algorithm is used to enrich meteorological and power samples. Then, based on XGBoost and Transformer algorithms, the wind power reference and loss prediction models are established to quantify theoretical output and power shortage in cold weather. In addition, a binary Seq2Seq model based on attention mechanism is proposed to predict whether power loss occurs or not, so that the combined prediction is conducted by extracting the time period of wind power loss. Finally, the tests of the cold wave weather events represented by the weather with strong wind, strong rainfall, the combination of strong wind and strong rainfall are carried out. Compared with the traditional prediction model, this method shows good prediction performance under cold wave weather.

     

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