李昀熠, 万灿, 李彪, 宋永华, 陈大玮. 新能源配电系统非参数概率最优潮流解析方法[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2023, 43(11): 4218-4227. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.220316
引用本文: 李昀熠, 万灿, 李彪, 宋永华, 陈大玮. 新能源配电系统非参数概率最优潮流解析方法[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2023, 43(11): 4218-4227. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.220316
LI Yunyi, WAN Can, LI Biao, SONG Yonghua, CHEN Dawei. An Analytical Method of Nonparametric Probabilistic Optimal Power Flow for Renewable Distribution Systems[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2023, 43(11): 4218-4227. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.220316
Citation: LI Yunyi, WAN Can, LI Biao, SONG Yonghua, CHEN Dawei. An Analytical Method of Nonparametric Probabilistic Optimal Power Flow for Renewable Distribution Systems[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2023, 43(11): 4218-4227. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.220316

新能源配电系统非参数概率最优潮流解析方法

An Analytical Method of Nonparametric Probabilistic Optimal Power Flow for Renewable Distribution Systems

  • 摘要: 分布式新能源的大规模接入给配电系统的安全经济运行带来了严峻的挑战。为准确分析新能源出力不确定性对配电系统运行决策的影响,该文提出一种基于卡罗需–库恩–塔克(Karush-Kuhn-Tucker,KKT)条件与高斯混合模型的新能源配电系统非参数概率最优潮流计算方法。基于最优潮流问题的KKT条件获得从新能源出力等输入变量到机组出力等输出随机变量最优解的解析映射关系,显著简化了优化问题的求解过程。采用多元高斯混合模型对新能源出力概率分布进行描述,准确表征含有相关性的新能源出力的概率特性。最后,采用IEEE-33节点配电系统算例仿真分析验证所提配电系统非参数概率最优潮流计算方法的有效性。

     

    Abstract: The large-scale integration of distributed renewable energy poses severe challenges to the secure and economic operation of distribution systems. In this paper, a novel nonparametric probabilistic optimal power flow (POPF) method of renewable distribution systems based on the Gaussian mixture model and Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions is proposed to evaluate the influence of renewable energy uncertainty on the distribution systems. The optimal power flow problem is solved with Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) conditions to obtain the analytical affine mapping relationship from renewable energy generation to the optimal solutions of output random variables, which significantly simplifies the optimization procedures. Then, the multivariate Gaussian mixture model is utilized to accurately describe the probabilistic characteristics of the correlated renewable energy. Finally, comprehensive numerical experiments on IEEE 33-bus test system verify the effectiveness of the proposed nonparametric POPF method for the distribution systems.

     

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