李悦, 唐振浩, 曹生现, 沈涛. 基于动态时延分析和典型样本筛选的NOx排放浓度预测[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2023, 43(9): 3488-3497. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.213189
引用本文: 李悦, 唐振浩, 曹生现, 沈涛. 基于动态时延分析和典型样本筛选的NOx排放浓度预测[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2023, 43(9): 3488-3497. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.213189
LI Yue, TANG Zhenhao, CAO Shengxian, SHEN Tao. Prediction of NOx Emission Concentration Based on Dynamic Time Delay Analysis and Typical Sample Selection[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2023, 43(9): 3488-3497. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.213189
Citation: LI Yue, TANG Zhenhao, CAO Shengxian, SHEN Tao. Prediction of NOx Emission Concentration Based on Dynamic Time Delay Analysis and Typical Sample Selection[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2023, 43(9): 3488-3497. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.213189

基于动态时延分析和典型样本筛选的NOx排放浓度预测

Prediction of NOx Emission Concentration Based on Dynamic Time Delay Analysis and Typical Sample Selection

  • 摘要: 选择性催化还原(selective catalytic reduction,SCR)是一个变时间延迟的动态过程。为建立准确SCR出口NOx排放浓度预测模型,提出一种基于动态时延分析和典型样本筛选的建模算法。首先,通过机理分析和实际生产数据Pearson相关性分析,确定模型输入变量。然后,采用时间滑动窗口策略,计算滑动时间窗口内变量互信息熵,根据互信息熵排序确定各变量对于NOx排放浓度的动态延迟时间。其次,为了降低建模样本数量,采用K-Means聚类算法对时延分析后的样本集合进行筛选,筛选出具有代表性和多样性的典型运行数据样本。最后,设计极限学习机算法,构建SCR系统出口NOx动态预测模型。基于1000MW超超临界锅炉运行数据的验证结果显示,所提算法的预测误差小于5%,能够对SCR系统出口NOx浓度进行准确预测。

     

    Abstract: Selective catalytic reduction is a dynamic process with dynamic time delay. A modeling algorithm based on dynamic time delay analysis and typical sample selection is proposed to establish an accurate prediction model of NOx emission concentration of SCR outlet. First, through the mechanism analysis and Pearson correlation analysis of actual production data, the input variables of the model are determined. Secondly, the sliding time window strategy is adopted to compute the mutual information entropy of variables within the sliding time window. And the dynamic delay time of each variable for NOx emission concentration is obtained based on the mutual information entropy. Thirdly, in order to reduce the number of training samples, the K-Means clustering algorithm is employed to select the sample set after time delay analysis. The cluster centers with representativeness and diversity are screened out. Finally, an extreme learning machine algorithm is designed to build a dynamic prediction model of NOx of SCR outlet. Experimental results based on operation data of a 1000MW ultra-supercritical boiler show that the prediction errors of the established models are less than 5%, which could accurately predict the NOx emission concentration at the outlet of SCR system.

     

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