李宏仲, 孔振宇, 陶淳逸. 考虑天然气管网多状态模型的电–气综合能源系统可靠性评估[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2022, 42(17): 6247-6259. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.211234
引用本文: 李宏仲, 孔振宇, 陶淳逸. 考虑天然气管网多状态模型的电–气综合能源系统可靠性评估[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2022, 42(17): 6247-6259. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.211234
LI Hongzhong, KONG Zhenyu, TAO Chunyi. Reliability Evaluation of Electric-Gas Integrated Energy System Considering the Multi-state Model of Natural Gas Pipeline Network[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2022, 42(17): 6247-6259. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.211234
Citation: LI Hongzhong, KONG Zhenyu, TAO Chunyi. Reliability Evaluation of Electric-Gas Integrated Energy System Considering the Multi-state Model of Natural Gas Pipeline Network[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2022, 42(17): 6247-6259. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.211234

考虑天然气管网多状态模型的电–气综合能源系统可靠性评估

Reliability Evaluation of Electric-Gas Integrated Energy System Considering the Multi-state Model of Natural Gas Pipeline Network

  • 摘要: 现有针对电–气综合能源系统可靠性评估中天然气管道状态的研究多是基于管道的两状态模型,而实际的天然气管网受到扰动后可能的不正常运行状态有泄漏、穿孔、破裂,此时仍能运行一段较长时间,因此两状态模型并不完全适用于管道故障建模分析。此外,基于能流分析求解系统供能可靠性计算量大,计算效率较低。由于Petri网模型能直观地表达系统拓扑结构,并清晰地描述元件状态之间的动态转移过程,在基于流网络的Petri网模型推理计算中避免了直接计算系统能流,提高计算效率。为此,利用随机Petri网理论建立了一种统一的物理网络模型,对电–气综合能源系统开展供能可靠性评估。首先,构建管线故障的多状态随机Petri网模型,求解与之同构的马尔科夫状态转移矩阵并进行随机抽样;其次,考虑电、气传输速度的差异,构建网络的随机Petri网模型,依据推理计算规则,并考虑基于能量传递关系的容量约束、管道容量缩减曲线等,得到系统可靠性指标。最后,以两个互联的电力系统与天然气系统作为算例进行仿真分析,验证模型和方法的有效性。

     

    Abstract: The existing researches on the state of natural gas pipeline in the reliability evaluation of the electric gas integrated energy system are mostly based on the two-state model of pipelines. However, the actual natural gas pipeline network may have leakage, perforation and fracture after being disturbed. At this time, it can still run for a long time. Therefore, the two-state model is not fully suitable for pipeline fault modeling and analysis. In addition, the calculation of energy supply reliability based on energy flow analysis is large and the calculation efficiency is low. Because the Petri net model can intuitively express the system topology and clearly describe the dynamic transfer process between component states, the direct calculation of system energy flow is avoided and the calculation efficiency is improved in the reasoning calculation of Petri net model based on flow network. Therefore, a novel unified physical network model based on the stochastic Petri net theory was established to evaluate the reliability of the electric-gas integrated energy system. Firstly, a multi-state stochastic Petri net model for component faults was constructed, and the Markov state transfer matrix was solved, and component states were randomly sampled. Secondly, considering the difference of electric and gas transmission speed, the stochastic Petri net model of the system was constructed. According to the rules of inference and calculation, the reliability index of the system was obtained by considering the capacity constraint based on the energy transfer relation and the capacity reduction curve of the pipeline. Finally, two interconnected power systems and natural gas systems were used as examples for simulation analysis to verify the validity of the models and methods.

     

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