殷涛, 薛阳, 杨艺宁, 徐英辉, 金晟, 苏盛. 基于向量自回归模型的高损线路窃电检测[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2022, 42(3): 1015-1023. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.210365
引用本文: 殷涛, 薛阳, 杨艺宁, 徐英辉, 金晟, 苏盛. 基于向量自回归模型的高损线路窃电检测[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2022, 42(3): 1015-1023. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.210365
YIN Tao, XUE Yang, YANG Yining, XU Yinghui, JIN Sheng, SU Sheng. Electricity Theft Detection of High-loss Line With Vector Autoregression[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2022, 42(3): 1015-1023. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.210365
Citation: YIN Tao, XUE Yang, YANG Yining, XU Yinghui, JIN Sheng, SU Sheng. Electricity Theft Detection of High-loss Line With Vector Autoregression[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2022, 42(3): 1015-1023. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.210365

基于向量自回归模型的高损线路窃电检测

Electricity Theft Detection of High-loss Line With Vector Autoregression

  • 摘要: 接入配电线路的用户窃电将直接导致分线线损电量异常波动,因此用户用电量与分线线损电量间存在长期动态互动。该文提出基于向量自回归模型检测造成线损波动的异常用户的方法。首先,运用边限协整检验分析线损电量和用户用电量的长期均衡关系;然后,构建线路线损电量与接入用户用电量的向量自回归模型,计算脉冲响应函数分析线损电量与用户用电量的动态作用机制;再通过方差分解分析线损电量与用户用电量间冲击作用的贡献度,将对线损电量有显著影响且波动贡献度最大的用户识别为窃电用户;最后,结合实际高损线路用户数据识别窃电嫌疑用户,并运用现场稽查的手段验证了所提方法的有效性。

     

    Abstract: Electricity theft could cause escalation of power loss of associated feeder. As a consequence, there is a long-term dynamic interaction between the electricity usage of an anomaly user and the power loss of associated feeder. Vector auto regression (VAR) based approach was proposed to detect anomaly user connecting to feeder with high loss ratio. Firstly, the long-term equilibrium relationship between power loss of feeder and each user's electricity usage was analyzed with edge-limit co-consolidation test. Secondly, the VAR model of feeder loss and the electricity usage of users were constructed. The dynamic mechanism of feeder loss and user's usage was analyzed with the pulse response function. Thirdly, the contribution of the user's electricity usage on the feeder loss was analyzed with variance decomposition. Consequently, the user with significant impact on the loss of feeder could be identified as the anomaly one. The validity and accuracy of the approach proposed in the paper were verified with the test study and on-site inspection based on real world metering data of feeder with high loss ratio.

     

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