谢绍宇, 王秀丽, 王锡凡. 电力系统的分割多目标风险分析框架及算法[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2011, 31(34): 53-60,7. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.2011.34.028
引用本文: 谢绍宇, 王秀丽, 王锡凡. 电力系统的分割多目标风险分析框架及算法[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2011, 31(34): 53-60,7. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.2011.34.028
XIE Shao-yu, WANG Xiu-li, WANG Xi-fan. Risk Assessment Framework and Algorithm of Power Systems Based on the Partitioned Multi-objective Risk Method[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2011, 31(34): 53-60,7. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.2011.34.028
Citation: XIE Shao-yu, WANG Xiu-li, WANG Xi-fan. Risk Assessment Framework and Algorithm of Power Systems Based on the Partitioned Multi-objective Risk Method[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2011, 31(34): 53-60,7. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.2011.34.028

电力系统的分割多目标风险分析框架及算法

Risk Assessment Framework and Algorithm of Power Systems Based on the Partitioned Multi-objective Risk Method

  • 摘要: 针对平均风险指标无法区分高损失-低概率事件及低损失-高概率事件的缺点,提出了电力系统的分割多目标风险分析框架。该框架将电力系统的风险状态细分为低损失、中等损失和高损失3个风险范围,并提出3个损失范围条件风险函数和条件风险概率的概念。采用经典的容量停运表模型,建立了这些条件期望指标的计算方法。对IEEE-RTS及TH-RTS2000系统进行了分割多目标风险评估,研究不同负荷水平下系统风险在3个损失范围的分布及转移情况,并分析损失分割点对系统风险的影响。通过分割多目标风险分析,风险分析者和决策者可以权衡系统的平均风险以及高、中、低损失范围的条件期望风险,从而对系统的风险状况有一个全面和深入的了解。

     

    Abstract: The average reliability indices can not distinguish between the events of low probability but high damage and high probability low damage.In order to overcome these shortcomings,this paper proposes an extended risk analysis framework for the power system based on the partitioned multi-objective risk method.In the extended framework,the risk states were divided into three ranges: low-damage,moderate-damage and high-damage domains,and three conditional risk functions and conditional probabilities were established.On the basis of the capacity outage probability table,we proposed the risk assessment algorithm to calculate the conditional risk indices.Finally,the IEEE-RTS and the TH-RTS2000 were evaluated by the proposed framework and algorithm.The risk distribution and variation in different load levels were investigated and the effects of the damage-partitioned points were discussed.In the extended risk analysis framework,the analysts and decision makers can make trade-off between the average risk and the conditional risks of the high,medium,and low damage ranges,and they can comprehend the risk levels of the power system in a holistic and deep way.

     

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