张红, 袁铁江, 谭捷. 统一能源系统氢负荷中长期预测[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2021, 41(10): 3364-3372. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.200800
引用本文: 张红, 袁铁江, 谭捷. 统一能源系统氢负荷中长期预测[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2021, 41(10): 3364-3372. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.200800
ZHANG Hong, YUAN Tiejiang, TAN Jie. Medium and Long-term Forecast of Hydrogen Load in Unified Energy System[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2021, 41(10): 3364-3372. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.200800
Citation: ZHANG Hong, YUAN Tiejiang, TAN Jie. Medium and Long-term Forecast of Hydrogen Load in Unified Energy System[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2021, 41(10): 3364-3372. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.200800

统一能源系统氢负荷中长期预测

Medium and Long-term Forecast of Hydrogen Load in Unified Energy System

  • 摘要: 为实现清洁、时变可再生能源消纳和污染、稳定化石能源利用的协调发展,提出新能源电制-储氢耦合碳一化工循环的统一能源系统。在统一能源系统背景下,考虑氢负荷预测的时空特性、应用场景、影响因素与预测方法,建立氢负荷预测框架。基于此,针对氢负荷预测历史数据与信息缺乏等问题,提出工业领域、电力系统、热力行业及交通领域的氢负荷预测函数,计算各场景下氢需求量,并提出计及原始数据检验的滚动灰色预测方法。最后,分场景预测全球氢负荷,仿真结果验证所提预测方法的有效性及统一能源系统节能减排的可行性。

     

    Abstract: In order to achieve the coordinated development of clean, time-varying renewable energy consumption and pollution, stable fossil energy utilization, a unified energy system for hydrogen production and storage by new energy coupling C1 chemical engineering cycle was proposed. In the context of a unified energy system, considering the spatio- temporal characteristics, application scenarios, influencing factors and forecasting methods of hydrogen load forecasting, a hydrogen load forecasting framework was established. On this basis, a hydrogen load prediction function in the fields of industry, power, heat and transportation was proposed to calculate the hydrogen load in each scenario. A rolling grey prediction method considering original data test was also proposed for the characteristics of the lack of historical information on hydrogen load prediction and the influence of multiple factors. Finally, the global hydrogen energy load was predicted in different scenarios, and the results verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.

     

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