考虑需求响应不确定性的电动汽车负荷Sigmoid云模型预测
Load Forecasting of Electric Vehicles Based on Sigmoid Cloud Model Considering the Uncertainty of Demand Response
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摘要: 电动汽车(electric vehicle,EV)参与需求响应存在较大的不确定性,这给EV负荷曲线的预测带来了巨大的挑战,为此,提出一种考虑需求响应不确定性的EV日前负荷预测方法。首先结合价格型和激励型两种需求响应机制设计EV有序充放电的自动需求响应策略,然后为了描述用户响应该策略的随机性和模糊性,提出一种新型的Sigmoid云模型,刻画受复杂因素影响下EV用户收益度与响应行为之间的不确定映射关系,获得了EV用户对需求响应策略的接受度,最终计算出不同响应情景下的EV负荷及其概率分布信息。仿真结果表明,相比传统方法,所提Sigmoid云模型量化了EV响应行为不确定性,均方根误差减小了约60%,同时EV负荷的概率预测结果的相对误差维持在0.9%~9.6%,预测模型和方法更为精细准确。Abstract: There is a large uncertainty in the participation of electric vehicle(EV) in demand response, which brings great challenges to the prediction of EV loads. Therefore, an EV day-ahead load forecasting method considering the uncertainty of demand response was proposed. Firstly, an EV automatic demand response strategy was designed by combining two demand response mechanisms: price and incentive. Then, in order to describe the randomness and fuzziness of user’s response to the strategy, a new Sigmoid cloud model was proposed to describe the uncertainty mapping relationship between user’s profitability and response behavior, which is affected by complex factors, and users’ acceptance of the strategy were obtained. Furthermore, EV loads and their probability distributions under different response scenarios were calculated. The simulation results show that, compared with the traditional methods, the proposed Sigmoid cloud quantizes the uncertainty of EV response behavior, the RMSE is reduced by about 60%, and the relative errors of EV load probabilistic prediction results are maintained at 0.9%~9.6%. The prediction model and method are more precise and accurate.