考虑用户侧分布式储能交互的售电公司智能化动态定价
Intelligent Dynamic Pricing of Electricity Retailers Considering Distributed Energy Storage Interaction on User Side
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摘要: 用户侧分布式储能通常不具备集中调控能力,其分散、无序的非计划响应行为将加大售电公司运营风险,在高渗透条件下可能影响售电收益,科学地动态定价是降低此类风险的重要机制。针对传统基于模型的方法存在的数据观测不全、建模复杂且收敛困难等问题,提出一种结合动力学演化和数据驱动的方法,并应用于考虑用户侧分布式储能交互效应的售电公司动态定价策略。首先通过元胞自动机推演储能状态分布并以售电公司全时段收益最大为目标优化实时电价,然后提取大量离线样本以充分训练改进的稀疏深度置信网络,其以前一时刻的时序号和各台区变化电量为输入、以本时刻的购售电价相对变化量为直接输出,最后得到智能化动态定价模型,以引导电价的自适应调整并消弭收益损失风险。通过研究多台区下分布式储能的算例,验证了所提方法能够通过学习可观测的简单数据即时调节电价,从而有效防范储能套利带来的经营风险,且模型对储能渗透率的变化具备较稳定的适应性。Abstract: Distributed energy storage system(ESS) accessed from user side is generally characterized by the decentralized controllability and unscheduled response, which increases financial risk of the electricity retailers especially under the high penetration conditions. Scientific dynamic pricing is an important strategy to avoid such risks. In order to overcome the problems of incomplete data observation, complex modeling and difficult convergence of model-based approaches, a data-driven method combined with dynamic evolution was proposed and applied to dynamic pricing strategy of the retailer considering interaction effect of user-side distributed ESS. First, state distribution of ESS was deduced by cellular automata and the real-time price was optimized with the goal of maximizing full-time profit of the retailer. Then a large amount of offline samples were extracted to fully train the improved sparse deep belief network, which took time serial number and the amount of power changed in each transformer district at the previous time slot as inputs, and directly outputs the relative change of price at current time slot. Finally, an intelligent dynamic pricing model was obtained to guide the adaptive adjustment of price and mitigate the risk of loss. By studying the examples of distributed ESS in multiple districts, it is verified that by learning simple and observable data, the proposed method is capable of adjusting price in real time, so as to effectively prevent the operational risks brought by the ESS arbitrage. Besides, the model possesses stable adaptability to the change of ESS permeability.