基于隐马尔科夫模型的多风电场相关性出力时间序列建模方法
Modeling Correlated Power Time Series of Multiple Wind Farms Based on Hidden Markov Model
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摘要: 生成具有相关性的多风电场中长期出力时间序列,对电力系统规划和调度运行具有重要的意义。该文提出一种基于隐马尔可夫模型的多风电场出力时间序列建模方法。将风电出力的相关性作为隐马尔可夫模型的状态变量,并利用Markov链描述其时变特性;将各风电场在相邻时刻的出力作为隐马尔可夫模型的观测变量,建立相关性状态与相邻时刻出力的概率映射关系。利用Baum Welch算法估计隐马尔可夫模型参数,获取时变相关性状态的转移概率矩阵和各状态下多个风电场在相邻时刻出力的联合概率分布。最后,通过蒙特卡罗仿真逐月生成多风电场出力的时间序列场景。算例中对我国西北某省份的3个风电场进行测试,结果显示:所提方法生成的各风电场出力的年/月特性、概率分布特性、波动特性和自相关性均优于独立建模方法,并且风电出力相关性与历史序列非常接近,证明所提方法的有效性。Abstract: Generating long-term correlated wind power time series for multiple wind farms is of great significance for power system planning and operation. A new method on modeling correlated power time series of multiple wind farms was proposed based on hidden Markov model(HMM). A Markov chain was adopted to model the state of time-varying correlations between wind farms, and wind power outputs at two adjacent moments were set as observations of HMM, which established the mathematical mapping model between wind power correlations and power outputs at two adjacent moments. The Baum Welch algorithm was used to estimate the parameters of HMM, which consists of the transition probability matrix and the joint probability distribution of observations. Based on the established HMM, Monte Carlo simulation method was used to generate correlated annual wind power time series of the wind farms. In case studies, the proposed method was tested on three wind farms in the northwest of China. Results show that the generated wind power time series exhibit superior performance on the annual and monthly characteristics, joint probability distribution and auto-correlation to the compared method, and the crosscorrelation is also very familiar to the historical data, which verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.