数据驱动下高速铁路牵引变压器热点温度预测
Data Driven Prediction for Traction Transformer Hot-spot Temperature in High Speed Railway
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摘要: 为实现高速铁路沿线牵引变压器群热点温度的批量预测以评估其绝缘寿命,将某一装设光纤测温的牵引变压器A实测的热点温度、负载系数及环境温度划分训练集和预测集,采用遗传编程对训练集驱动建模,建立可直接评估动态热点温度的显式预测模型,并针对热点温度进行预测集下的纵向预测和不同区段下变压器B、C的横向预测。研究结果表明:模型中热点温度与牵引负载系数平方呈正相关,且结构简单直观,对预测集热点预测的平均相对误差、拟合优度R2分别为1.63%、0.983 0,具有较高预测精度及准确性;模型可准确跟踪预测变压器B、C热点温度,二者预测的平均相对误差分别为1.00%、1.89%,具有较强的泛化性能,可实现与牵引变压器A隶属于同一高铁服役线路下的变压器群热点温度的批量预测。Abstract: In order to realize the batch prediction of hot-spot temperature(HST) for traction transformer group in the high-speed railway to evaluate their insulation life. The HTS, load factor and ambient temperature measured by a traction transformer A equipped with fiber-optic probes were divided into training set and prediction set. Genetic programming was used to drive training set modeling, and an explicit expression prediction model which could directly evaluate the dynamic HST was established. The longitudinal prediction of the prediction set and the horizontal prediction of transformers B and C under different sections were carried out for the THS. The study results show that the HST is positively correlated with the traction load factor square and the structure of the model is simple and intuitive. The mean relative error(MRE) and the goodness of fit(R2) of the HST prediction under the prediction set are 1.63% and 0.9830 respectively indicating the model has high prediction accuracy and exactitude. The THS of transformer B and C can be predicted well for the MRE is 1.00% and 1.89% respectively. The model has strong generalization performance and the HTS of transformer group under the same service railway line as traction transformer A can be predicted in batches by it.