肖怀硕, 李清泉, 施亚林, 张同乔, 张纪伟. 灰色理论–变分模态分解和NSGA-Ⅱ优化的支持向量机在变压器油中气体预测中的应用[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2017, 37(12): 3643-3653,3694. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.161041
引用本文: 肖怀硕, 李清泉, 施亚林, 张同乔, 张纪伟. 灰色理论–变分模态分解和NSGA-Ⅱ优化的支持向量机在变压器油中气体预测中的应用[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2017, 37(12): 3643-3653,3694. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.161041
XIAO Huaishuo, LI Qingquan, SHI Yalin, ZHANG Tongqiao, Zhang Jiwei. Prediction of Dissolved Gases in Oil for Transformer Based on Grey Theory-Variational Mode Decomposition and Support Vector Machine Improved by NSGA-Ⅱ[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2017, 37(12): 3643-3653,3694. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.161041
Citation: XIAO Huaishuo, LI Qingquan, SHI Yalin, ZHANG Tongqiao, Zhang Jiwei. Prediction of Dissolved Gases in Oil for Transformer Based on Grey Theory-Variational Mode Decomposition and Support Vector Machine Improved by NSGA-Ⅱ[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2017, 37(12): 3643-3653,3694. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.161041

灰色理论–变分模态分解和NSGA-Ⅱ优化的支持向量机在变压器油中气体预测中的应用

Prediction of Dissolved Gases in Oil for Transformer Based on Grey Theory-Variational Mode Decomposition and Support Vector Machine Improved by NSGA-Ⅱ

  • 摘要: 为了利用有限的历史数据准确地预测未来一段时间变压器油中的气体含量,该文将一种变分模态分解(variational mode decomposition,VMD)方法和优化的支持向量机(support vector machine,SVM)引入到预测模型中。首先,采用灰色模型(grey model,GM)对原始序列进行去趋势处理,然后对去趋势的序列进行VMD,得到了一组平稳的模态分量。再通过经改进的非支配排序遗传算法-II优化的SVM对各模态分量分别进行预测,最后重构获得了最终的预测结果。实验结果表明,该方法既在气体预测中具有较高精度,还能够反映气体变化趋势,并为电力系统其他领域的预测模型提供了新思路。

     

    Abstract: In order to accurately predict the dissolved gas content for the transformer oil in a period of time in the future with the limited historical data, the variational mode decomposition(VMD) and the optimized support vector machine(SVM) were introduced to the prediction model. First, the original sequence was detrended by the grey model(GM). Then, the detrended sequence was decomposed into a set of smooth modal components with the VMD. And after predicting the modal components respectively with the SVMs which were optimized by the improved non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II, the final prediction results were obtained by reconstruction. The results show that the proposed method in this paper not only has high accuracy in gas prediction, but also can reflects the trend of gas content, and can provide a new way for the prediction in other fields of power system.

     

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