基于Hadoop架构的多重分布式BP神经网络的短期负荷预测方法
A Multiple Distributed BP Neural Networks Approach for Short-term Load Forecasting Based on Hadoop Framework
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摘要: 随着智能电网、通信网络技术和传感器技术的发展,电力负荷数据规模呈现指数形式增长、且复杂程度增大,逐步构成了电力负荷大数据,传统负荷预测方法已无法满足海量负荷大数据分析的要求。提出一种基于Hadoop架构的多重分布式BP神经网络的短期负荷预测方法。该方法首先在从BP神经网络原理层对其输入信号的正向传递、误差信号的反向传播过程予以剖析的基础上,研究并建立基于Hadoop架构中Map Reduce框架的BP神经网络负荷分布式预测模型;其次,为弱化其"过拟合"问题,在引入"多重"概念的基础上,提出基于灰色关联度和最短距离法聚类的方式择取多重分布式BP神经网络预测模型初始重数和成员集的方法,并定义衡量聚类优劣的有效指标,以确定合理重数。实验结果表明,多重分布式BP神经网络预测方法相比传统BP神经网络,预测精度更高。Abstract: With the development of smart grids, communication network and sensor technology, the scale of power data is growing exponentially and complexly which gradually forms the big data. Up to now, traditional load forecasting methods have been unable to satisfy the analyzing requirements of massive load data. As a result, this paper put forward a short-term load forecasting method by incorporating multi-distributed BP neural networks combined with Hadoop Framework. First, on the basis of decomposing positive transferring process of input signals and back propagation of error signals in the BP neural network respectively, the load forecasting model of distributed BP neural network based on Hadoop framework was investigated and then implemented. Second, in order to weaken over-fitting problem, an clustering approach based on gray correlation and shortest distance method was utilized for the original number and the member set of multiple distributed BP neural networks after introducing the concept of the multiple, and then the valid index which determines the effectiveness of advantages and disadvantages of clustering results in order to determine the total number of models was also defined. Analytical results show that the prediction precision of multiple parallel BP neural network method is higher than that of the traditional BP neural network.