白杨, 王鹏, 韩肖清, 秦文萍. 基于负荷不确定性建模的静态电压稳定性风险评估[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2016, 36(13): 3470-3478,3366. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.151110
引用本文: 白杨, 王鹏, 韩肖清, 秦文萍. 基于负荷不确定性建模的静态电压稳定性风险评估[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2016, 36(13): 3470-3478,3366. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.151110
BAI Yang, WANG Peng, HAN Xiaoqing, QIN Wenping. Risk Assessment of Static Voltage Stability Based on Load Uncertainty Modeling[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2016, 36(13): 3470-3478,3366. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.151110
Citation: BAI Yang, WANG Peng, HAN Xiaoqing, QIN Wenping. Risk Assessment of Static Voltage Stability Based on Load Uncertainty Modeling[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2016, 36(13): 3470-3478,3366. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.151110

基于负荷不确定性建模的静态电压稳定性风险评估

Risk Assessment of Static Voltage Stability Based on Load Uncertainty Modeling

  • 摘要: 该文以负荷不确定性建模为基础,提出一种静态电压稳定性风险评估方法。负荷不确定性建模分3个阶段进行,其一采用改进模糊C均值聚类方法、Cholesky分解和多维正态分布抽样技术得到初始负荷波动模型;其二基于蒙特卡罗方法,建立可同时计及负荷增长方向及功率因数随机变化、用来模拟多节点负荷持续增长情景的概率超圆锥体模型;其三以相关系数和互信息量为评判体系,根据负荷曲线相似度将节点分群,确定负荷出现同时增长的节点编号。之后,构建蒙特卡罗-连续潮流算法,植入负荷不确定性模型,提出4项分别针对节点、线路及系统的风险指标,得到完整的风险评估体系。该文以太原110k V电网为例,对比分析了含恒功率负荷模型系统与含综合负荷模型系统的风险水平、薄弱区域,验证了文中所提方法的准确性和有效性。

     

    Abstract: Based on load uncertainty modeling, this paper presented a risk assessment framework of static voltage stability in the power system. Load uncertainty modeling consisted of three steps: Modified fuzzy cluster method(FCM), Cholesky decomposition and multi-dimension normal distribution sampling method were adopted to get initial load profile; A probability hyper-cone load growth model was proposed based on Monte Carlo method to simulate stochastic variation of loading direction and power factor; One evaluation system combining correlation coefficient with mutual information was established to divide buses into different groups according to the similarity degree of their load curve. When load uncertainty model was established, it would be inserted into proposed Monte Carlo- continuation power flow(MCCPF) algorithm. Four risk indexed focusing respectively on bus, line and entire system were proposed and would be calculated based on MCCPF performance results, integral risk assessment framework was then founded. Taiyuan 110 k V system is studied and analyzed in terms of risk level and weakness zone recognition, adopting respectively constant power load model and composite load model, and the validity and effectiveness of proposed method is verified.

     

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