Abstract:
A hybrid Copula function combined with multivariate normal distribution is proposed to generate scenarios of wind and photovoltaic powers in response to the uncertainty. Based on the historical data of wind power and photovoltaic power, the joint distribution model of wind and PV is established, and the joint distribution sequence of wind and PV outputs with dynamic correlation is further generated by the multivariate normal distribution and covariance matrix. The random distribution number of wind and photovoltaic power scenarios are generated by the Markov Chain Monte Carlo Sampling method, and the corresponding wind and PV outputs scenarios are obtained by the inverse transformation method; the output scenarios generated by the different methods are compared, and the fitting effect and coupling effect of the wind power and photovoltaic power scenarios under dynamic correlation are analyzed. The results verify the validity of the proposed method, and the output scenarios can better portray the uncertainty of single output and coupled output of wind and PV power system.