牟哲岳, 孙勇, 王瑞良, 李涛, 林勇刚. 基于实测数据和机器学习的风电机组载荷预测模型[J]. 太阳能学报, 2023, 44(10): 414-419. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2022-0938
引用本文: 牟哲岳, 孙勇, 王瑞良, 李涛, 林勇刚. 基于实测数据和机器学习的风电机组载荷预测模型[J]. 太阳能学报, 2023, 44(10): 414-419. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2022-0938
Mou Zheyue, Sun Yong, Wang Ruiliang, Li Tao, Lin Yonggang. PREDICTION MODEL FOR WIND TURBINE LOADS BASED ON EXPERIMENTAL DATA AND MACHINE LEARNING[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica, 2023, 44(10): 414-419. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2022-0938
Citation: Mou Zheyue, Sun Yong, Wang Ruiliang, Li Tao, Lin Yonggang. PREDICTION MODEL FOR WIND TURBINE LOADS BASED ON EXPERIMENTAL DATA AND MACHINE LEARNING[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica, 2023, 44(10): 414-419. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2022-0938

基于实测数据和机器学习的风电机组载荷预测模型

PREDICTION MODEL FOR WIND TURBINE LOADS BASED ON EXPERIMENTAL DATA AND MACHINE LEARNING

  • 摘要: 快速准确预测风电机组载荷对机组设计及安全运行具有重要意义。该文通过机组原型测试和数据标定得到风电机组关键部位载荷数据,利用Pearson系数分析多种实测机组状态数据和气象数据的统计量与载荷特性之间的相关性,基于相关性排序确定预测模型输入参数。采用极端随机森林算法建立风电机组载荷预测模型,全面预测机组关键部位极限载荷、平均载荷和等效疲劳载荷。测试结果表明:预测模型能快速准确预测风电机组叶片、塔顶和塔底载荷特性,平均R2确定系数为0.96,可为机组载荷水平监测和安全运行提供有效支持。

     

    Abstract: Quick and accurate load prediction is crucial to wind turbine design and safe operation. The loads on the wind turbine are acquired by prototype test and data calibration in this study,and the Pearson coefficient method is then used to analyze the correlation relationships of the load characteristics with the statistical data from experimental turbine and meteorological measurements. The input variables for prediction model are determined based on the correlation ranking. The prediction model for wind turbine loads is established using the extremely random forests algorithm to predict the ultimate load,average load and equivalent fatigue load of turbine at crucial positions. The validated results show that the trained model can predict the load characteristics of the blade,tower top,tower bottom quickly and accurately,and the average determination coefficient R2reaches to 0.96. Therefore,the constructed model can provide effective support for the load monitoring and safe operation of wind turbine.

     

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