Abstract: Aiming to accurately predict the output power of direct-drive wave power generation systems,a prediction scheme based on variational pattern decomposition and vector autoregressive model is proposed. The predicted feature time is selected by analysing the correlation of the original time series,and the selected feature time series is decomposed into different sub-series by applying the variational mode decomposition method,which is subjected to unit root test and difference operation to establish a vector autoregressive model for each sub-series. A wave energy conversion model for direct-drive wave power generation system is established. The simulation results show that the proposed scheme model is reasonable and feasible,with stable model prediction results,high prediction accuracy and accurate prediction trends.