交直流混合输电运行风险模糊云评价模型
FUZZY CLOUD EVALUATION MODEL FOR OPERATION RISK OF AC/DC HYBRID TRANSMISSION
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摘要: 针对交直流混合输电系统运行风险的准确评估,不仅能够对交直流通道输电能力、稳定性做出判别,同时也可为送端和受端系统安稳分析和运行控制提供有效依据。该文提出一种基于交直流混合输电系统关键组成部分可靠性串并联模型的"模糊云"风险评估方法。首先,研究交直流混合输电系统中交流输电与直流输电的运行风险分析策略串并联拓扑模型,并建立交直流混合输电系统运行风险评价指标体系模型;其次,研究交直流混合输电各子系统运行风险的交互作用,利用模糊理论确定子系统在总体运行风险中的重要性程度,实现关键影响因素的辨识;然后,考虑到交直流输电系统输送可再生能源不确定性特点,应用云模型求解各指标的风险等级综合确定度,判断输电系统总体风险等级,从而实现对交直流输电系统风险水平的实时量化评估;最后,以中国东北某交直流混合输电系统实际运行数据为基础,建立交直流混合输电系统运行风险评价仿真系统模型,仿真结果表明,该文提出的模糊云风险评价方法,可为交直流混合输电系统安稳风险评估、运行稳定控制、输电容量优化等提供有效的数据支持。Abstract: Accurate assessment of the operational risk of AC-DC hybrid transmission systems can not only discriminate the transmission capacity and stability of AC-DC channels,but also provide an effective basis for the stability analysis and operation control of the transmitting and receiving systems. This paper proposes a "fuzzy cloud" risk assessment method based on the reliability series-parallel model of the key components of an AC-DC hybrid transmission system. First,the serial-parallel topology model of operation risk analysis strategy for AC and DC transmission system is studied, and a model of operation risk evaluation index system for AC-DC hybrid transmission system is established. Then,the interaction of the operation risks of each AC/DC hybrid transmission subsystem is studied. The fuzzy theory is used to determine the importance of the subsystem in the overall operation risk to realize the identification of key influencing factors. Next,considering the uncertain characteristics of renewable energy transmission in AC and DC transmission systems,the cloud model is used to solve each comprehensive determination of the risk level of the indicator so as to judge the overall risk level of the transmission system,by which a real-time quantitative assessment of the risk level of the AC/DC transmission system is achieved. Finally,based on the actual operating data of an AC/DC hybrid transmission system in Northeast China,an AC/DC hybrid transmission is system operation risk evaluation model established. The simulation results show that the fuzzy cloud risk evaluation method proposed in this paper can provide effective data support for the security risk assessment,operation stability control,and transmission capacity optimization of AC-DC hybrid transmission systems.