基于双时间尺度净负荷预测的储能调峰控制策略
DOUBLE TIME SCALE POWER PREDICTION BASED PEAKING SHAVING CONTROL STRATEGY OF ENERGY STORAGE SYSTEM
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摘要: 在将风电和负荷作为一个整体的前提下,该文提出一种基于日前和超短期滚动双时间尺度净负荷预测的储能调峰策略。该策略在日前规划阶段,基于日前功率预测以常规调峰机组出力最小为目标优化储能充放电序列,并建立调峰后联络线功率区间;在滚动调节优化阶段,提出一种基于VMD-SaE-ELM的净负荷超短期预测方法,并基于超短期净负荷的预测值和日前建立的功率区间动态调整下一步调峰参考功率以修正储能充放电功率。该策略针对日前和超短期预测阶段的误差均具有很好的容错能力,调峰后净负荷曲线更加平缓。根据实测数据的算例表明,采用所提双时间尺度储能调峰策略能够有效降低净负荷的波动,减小了常规机组的调峰压力。Abstract: By considering wind power and load as a whole,this paper proposes an energy storage peaking strategy based on day ahead and ultra-short-term rolling double time scale net load forecasting.In the planning stage,the energy storage and discharge sequence is optimized based on the previous power forecast with the minimum output of the conventional peaking unit,and the contact line power range after peak shaving is established.In the rolling adjustment optimization stage,a net load ultra-short-term forecasting method based on VMD-SaE-ELM is proposed and the next peak-adjusting reference power is dynamically adjusted based on the predicted value of the ultra-short-term net load and the power interval day ahead established to correct the energy storage and discharge power.After the peaking,the net load curve is more gradual,because the strategy has good fault tolerance for both the day ahead and ultra-short-term prediction stages.The example shows that the proposed double time scale energy storage peaking strategy can effectively reduce the fluctuation of the net load and reduce the peaking pressure of the conventional unit by using measured data.