金吉, 王斌, 喻敏, 王文波. Lorenz方程优化EMD分解过程的短期风速预测[J]. 太阳能学报, 2021, 42(6): 342-348. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2019-0258
引用本文: 金吉, 王斌, 喻敏, 王文波. Lorenz方程优化EMD分解过程的短期风速预测[J]. 太阳能学报, 2021, 42(6): 342-348. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2019-0258
Jin Ji, Wang Bin, Yu Min, Wang Wenbo. SHORT-TERM WIND SPEED PREDICTION BASED ON EMD OPTIMIZED BY LORENZ EQUATION[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica, 2021, 42(6): 342-348. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2019-0258
Citation: Jin Ji, Wang Bin, Yu Min, Wang Wenbo. SHORT-TERM WIND SPEED PREDICTION BASED ON EMD OPTIMIZED BY LORENZ EQUATION[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica, 2021, 42(6): 342-348. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2019-0258

Lorenz方程优化EMD分解过程的短期风速预测

SHORT-TERM WIND SPEED PREDICTION BASED ON EMD OPTIMIZED BY LORENZ EQUATION

  • 摘要: 由于受到大气流体运动的影响,短期风速具有一定的波动性、非线性等特性,严重影响风速的预测精度。针对该问题,提出利用Lorenz方程优化经验模态分解(EMD)过程的风速预测方法。运用Lorenz方程能表征大气运动对短期风速的混沌影响作用,采用一维Lorenz波动序列优化EMD的风速分解过程,改善EMD直接分解风速过程中出现的模态混叠现象,减小EMD分解风速所得高频分量的混沌程度。为证明方法的普适性,对3种时间尺度的短期风速数据进行分析研究。研究结果表明:相比于EMD-BP神经网络模型,Lorenz方程优化的EMD-BP神经网络模型的平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)、平均绝对误差(MAE)、均方根误差(RMSE)明显减小,风速预测结果的合格率得到有效提高。

     

    Abstract: As affected by the movement of atmospheric fluid,short term wind speed is characterized by volatility,nonlinearity etc,which severely influences the wind speed’s prediction precision. Aiming at this problem,the wind speed prediction method of optimizing the EMD decomposition process with Lorenz equation is proposed to solve the problem. Since Lorenz equation can be used to characterize chaotic effect caused by atmospheric fluid on wind speed,the one-dimensional Lorenz fluctuation sequence is adopted to optimize EMD decomposition process of wind speed,improve the modal aliasing phenomenon in the direct EMD decomposition process of wind speed and weakens chaos degree of high frequency components by EMD decomposition of wind speed. To confirm universality of the method,the short-term wind speed data of three kinds of time scales are analyzed and researched. The research results show:compared to EMD-BP neural network model,MAPE can be reduced about 5%, RMSE can be reduced about 0.1 and the qualified ration of wind speed prediction results is effectively enhanced by using the optimized EMD-BP neural network by Lorenz equation.

     

/

返回文章
返回