基于改进随机响应面法的含风电电力系统概率潮流计算
PROBABILISTIC POWER FLOW CALCULATION OF POWER SYSTEM CONSIDERING WIND POWER BASED ON IMPROVED STOCHASTIC RESPONSE SURFACE METHOD
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摘要: 针对传统随机响应面法(SRSM)应用于高维输入变量系统中,其多项式展开式中未知系数的数量较多、算法容易陷入维数灾难的问题,提出一种改进的概率潮流计算方法。该方法通过分析输入变量(负荷有功、无功功率)对于潮流计算输出响应的一阶灵敏度系数,删去二阶SRSM多项式中的二次交叉项,得到SRSM多项式展开式的稀疏表达形式,并采用Nataf变换技术将非正态变量(如风速)转换为正态变量作为系统输入。在含风电的IEEE-9、IEEE-118标准节点系统进行仿真验证该文所提算法的有效性。算例仿真结果表明,相比于传统随机响应面法,所提方法可显著减少确定性潮流计算的次数,可有效解决传统随机响应面法难以应用于高维输入变量系统的问题。Abstract: Aiming at the problem of the large number of unknown coefficients in the polynomial expansion is large and the algorithm easy falling into the dimension disaster when the traditional stochastic response surface method is applied to high dimensional input variable system,an improved probabilistic power flow calculation method is proposed. By analyzing the first-order sensitivity coefficient of input variables to the output responses of power flow calculation to delete the quadratic cross terms in the second-order SRSM polynomial,which can obtain the sparse expression form of the SRSM multinomial expansion,and the Nataf transform technique is used to convert non-normal variables(such as wind speed)into normal variables as system input. The effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is verified by simulation on the IEEE-9,IEEE-118 standard node systems with wind power. The simulation results show that the proposed method can significantly reduce the number of deterministic power flow calculations compared with the traditional stochastic response surface method,It can effectively solve the problem that the traditional stochastic response surface method is difficult to be applied to high dimensional input variable systems.