基于PVsyst回归分析的双面光伏组件年发电增益模型
IN PVsyst:A MODEL OF ANNUAL POWER GENERATION GAIN IN BIFACIAL PHOTOVOLTAIC MODULE BASED ON REGRESSION ANALYSIS
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摘要: 基于PVsyst软件,模拟不同安装条件下双面光伏组件年发电情况,对模拟数据进行回归分析。针对线性回归模型存在的缺陷,通过分析安装因素对双面增益的影响机理,确定基函数并建立非线性模型。经验证此模型准确度良好,预测平均绝对百分比误差为11.31%。此外,利用通径分析,比较安装因素对双面增益的影响程度,得出反射率的影响程度最大,其次为散射系数、离地高度、组件倾角。Abstract: Based on PVsyst,the annual power generation of bifacial photovoltaic modules under different installation conditions is simulated. The simulation data is processed by regression analysis. Aiming at the defects of linear regression model,the mechanism of influence of installation factors on bifacial gain is analyzed to determine the basic functions and establish a non-linear model. This model is of good accuracy with mean absolute percentage error of 11.31%. In addition,path analysis is used to compare the influence of the installation factors on bifacial gain. The results show that albedo has the greatest influence,followed by diffuse coefficient,height and tilted angle.