Abstract: Reliability and credible capacity are the important indices of AC/DC hybrid microgrid. Considering the meteorological conditions classified by cluster analysis,a probabilistic power output model of wind/photovoltaic/storage of the AC/DC hybrid microgrid is established in this paper. A sequential operation theory is proposed to calculate the expected energy not supplied（EENS）value of AC/DC hybrid microgrid. With the iterative method,the credible capacity is solved. And the influence of wind farm/photovoltaic capacity ratio and DC load sensitivity are analyzed. The results are compared with Monte Carlo methods so that the validity and feasibility of the proposed method are verified with the example system.