张萍, 张红, 李云峰, 陈伟, 张晓英, 李恒杰. 基于改进LHS的半不变量法概率潮流计算[J]. 太阳能学报, 2021, 42(1): 14-20. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2018-0705
引用本文: 张萍, 张红, 李云峰, 陈伟, 张晓英, 李恒杰. 基于改进LHS的半不变量法概率潮流计算[J]. 太阳能学报, 2021, 42(1): 14-20. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2018-0705
Zhang Ping, Zhang Hong, Li Yunfeng, Chen Wei, Zhang Xiaoying, Li Hengjie. IMPROVED LHS BASED CUMULANT METHOD FOR PROBABILISTIC LOAD FLOW CALCULATION[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica, 2021, 42(1): 14-20. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2018-0705
Citation: Zhang Ping, Zhang Hong, Li Yunfeng, Chen Wei, Zhang Xiaoying, Li Hengjie. IMPROVED LHS BASED CUMULANT METHOD FOR PROBABILISTIC LOAD FLOW CALCULATION[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica, 2021, 42(1): 14-20. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2018-0705

基于改进LHS的半不变量法概率潮流计算

IMPROVED LHS BASED CUMULANT METHOD FOR PROBABILISTIC LOAD FLOW CALCULATION

  • 摘要: 为提高概率潮流算法的精度和效率,提出一种将半不变量法和改进的拉丁超立方采样技术相结合的方法。首先,提出改进的非参数核密度估计算法,并用其建立光伏输出功率概率模型。其次,为改善各阶半不变量的计算精度和效率,根据输入随机变量的分布情况的不同,分别采用不同方法计算随机变量的各阶半不变量,并结合Gram-Charlier级数展开法求得状态变量和支路潮流的概率分布。最后,将所提概率潮流算法与蒙特卡罗模拟法比较,并通过IEEE-34节点系统验证所提方法的准确性、快速性和有效性。

     

    Abstract: In order to improve the accuracy and efficiency of the probabilistic power flow algorithm. The paper proposes a method combining the cumulant method with the improved Latin hypercube sampling technique. Firstly,the improved non-parametric kernel density estimation algorithm is proposed,and the probabilistic model of photovoltaic power is established by the method. Secondly,in order to improve the calculation accuracy and efficiency of each order cumulants,according to the distribution of the input random variables,different methods are used to calculate the cumulants of the random variables,and combined with the Gram-Charlier series expansion method obtains the probability distribution of state variables and branch flows. Finally,the proposed probabilistic power flow algorithm is compared with Monte Carlo simulation method,and the accuracy,rapidity and effectiveness of the proposed method are verified by the IEEE-34 node system.

     

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