朱继忠, 熊小伏, 刘乔波, 禤培正, 谢平平, 邹金. 现货市场下计及风光联合预测误差的经济调度[J]. 太阳能学报, 2021, 42(5): 450-458. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2018-0592
引用本文: 朱继忠, 熊小伏, 刘乔波, 禤培正, 谢平平, 邹金. 现货市场下计及风光联合预测误差的经济调度[J]. 太阳能学报, 2021, 42(5): 450-458. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2018-0592
Zhu Jizhong, Xiong Xiaofu, Liu Qiaobo, Xuan Peizheng, Xie Pingping, Zou Jin. ECONOMIC DISPATCHING CONSIDERING JOINT WIND AND PV POWER FORECAST ERROR IN ELECTRICITY SPOT MARKET[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica, 2021, 42(5): 450-458. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2018-0592
Citation: Zhu Jizhong, Xiong Xiaofu, Liu Qiaobo, Xuan Peizheng, Xie Pingping, Zou Jin. ECONOMIC DISPATCHING CONSIDERING JOINT WIND AND PV POWER FORECAST ERROR IN ELECTRICITY SPOT MARKET[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica, 2021, 42(5): 450-458. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2018-0592

现货市场下计及风光联合预测误差的经济调度

ECONOMIC DISPATCHING CONSIDERING JOINT WIND AND PV POWER FORECAST ERROR IN ELECTRICITY SPOT MARKET

  • 摘要: 基于历史数据,对风电及光伏在不同出力水平下预测误差的分布进行正态拟合,并引入Spearman相关系数分季节描述风光预测误差的互补性,从而得到风光联合预测误差分布模型。接着,考虑风光联合预测误差所引起的调度成本的变化,并分别引入到日前及实时市场调度模型目标函数中,从而得到统计意义上更为合理的现货市场经济调度模型。通过算例分析预测误差成本、预测误差互补性以及风光预测误差分布系数取值对调度结果的影响,验证该模型的合理性和有效性。

     

    Abstract: Based on historical data,the distribution function of wind and photovoltaic power forecasting error at different output levels is fitted. The Spearman correlation coefficient is introduced to describe the complementarity of the wind and photovoltaic power forecasting error by season,so as to obtain the joint wind and photovoltaic power forecasting error distribution model. Then,the changes in dispatch cost caused by joint forecasting error of wind and photovoltaic power is considered,and the forecast error cost is introduced into the objective functions of the day-ahead and real-time electricity market dispatching models. Thus,a more reasonable electricity spot market dispatching model in statistics is proposed. An example is used to analyze the impact of forecast error cost,forecast error complementarity,and distribution coefficient of wind and photovoltaic forecast error on the scheduling results. The rationality and effectiveness of the model is illustrated in the example.

     

/

返回文章
返回