张弦, 王明培, 史伟. 碳中和目标下鄂尔多斯地区的光伏发电路径情景分析[J]. 太阳能, 2024, (4): 20-28. DOI: 10.19911/j.1003-0417.tyn20230427.04
引用本文: 张弦, 王明培, 史伟. 碳中和目标下鄂尔多斯地区的光伏发电路径情景分析[J]. 太阳能, 2024, (4): 20-28. DOI: 10.19911/j.1003-0417.tyn20230427.04
Zhang Xian, Wang Mingpei, Shi Wei. SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF PV POWER GENERATION PATH IN ORDOS REGION UNDER CARBON NEUTRALITY TARGET[J]. Solar Energy, 2024, (4): 20-28. DOI: 10.19911/j.1003-0417.tyn20230427.04
Citation: Zhang Xian, Wang Mingpei, Shi Wei. SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF PV POWER GENERATION PATH IN ORDOS REGION UNDER CARBON NEUTRALITY TARGET[J]. Solar Energy, 2024, (4): 20-28. DOI: 10.19911/j.1003-0417.tyn20230427.04

碳中和目标下鄂尔多斯地区的光伏发电路径情景分析

SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF PV POWER GENERATION PATH IN ORDOS REGION UNDER CARBON NEUTRALITY TARGET

  • 摘要: 首先根据土地面积和光伏发电量情况,采用静态法分析了鄂尔多斯地区的光伏发电潜力;然后结合鄂尔多斯火力发电量、煤炭消耗量和光伏发电量分析了鄂尔多斯地区能源消耗数据;最后根据中国的碳中和目标,同比测算鄂尔多斯地区碳中和目标下的电力目标、煤炭目标和光伏发电项目投资目标。分析结果显示:1)在鄂尔多斯地区光伏发电可利用土地面积为3.7万km2的情况下,光伏发电装机容量为14.8亿kW时,可实现1.92×104亿kWh的光伏发电量;2)当鄂尔多斯地区2060年的总电力需求量3900亿kWh均由光伏发电来满足时,需要建设光伏电站的土地面积为7500 km2,仅为该地区光伏发电可利用土地面积的20%,即通过光伏发电可实现鄂尔多斯地区碳中和电力目标;3)为实现碳中和目标,鄂尔多斯地区的光伏电站和储能系统投资总额占该地区人均国内生产总值(GDP)的比重将达到21%,通过加强金融和政策引导,方可实现此目标。

     

    Abstract: This paper first uses the static method to analyze the PV power generation potential in the Ordos region based on the land area and PV power generation situation. Then,combined with the thermal power generation,coal consumption,and PV power generation in Ordos region,the energy consumption data of Ordos region is analyzed. Finally,based on China’s carbon neutrality target,the electricity target,coal target,and investment target for PV power generation projects under the carbon neutrality target in the Ordos region are calculated year-on-year. The analysis results show that:1) With a land area of 37000 km2 available for PV power generation in the Ordos region,a PV power generation capacity of 1.48×109 kW can be achieved,resulting in a PV power generation capacity of 1.92×1013 kWh;2) When the total electricity demand of 3.90×1011 kWh in the Ordos region by 2060 is met by PV power generation,the land area required for the construction of PV power stations is 7500 km2,which is only 20% of the available land area for PV power generation. Therefore,the goal of achieving carbon neutral electricity in Ordos region can be achieved through PV power generation;3) To achieve the goal of carbon neutrality,the total investment in PV power stations and energy storage systems in the Ordos region will account for 21% of GDP. This goal can only be achieved by strengthening financial and policy guidance.

     

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