Abstract:
In recent years, the annual incremental proved reserves of petroleum in China has decreased significantly. As a result, the incremental recoverable reserves are less than the output of the year, and the annual output has also fallen below 2×10
8 t for 5 years. The average investment in exploration and development from 2015 to 2019 was at rock bottom, which is one of the reasons for the decline in oil reserves and production. The rapid development period of gas in China is a phase later than that of oil, and now it is still during a fast-developing period. China's shale gas has made a good beginning in the past 10 years, but it should be noted that the proved reserves obtained are limited to the shale in the Wufeng-Longmaxi formations in the southeastern Sichuan Basin. The proved reserves of shale oil have been obtained in the 7th oil layer of Yanchang Formation, and the construction of pilot development area has been started in the southwest of Ordos Basin. A major breakthrough of shale oil in the Lucaogou Formation has also been made in Jimsar sag of Junggar Basin, which is expected to achieve significant progress in reserves and production. However, it should be noted that the development of shale oil in China faces great difficulty and the threshold for economic development is high. Tight (sandstone) oil and gas is a field in which rapid progress is expected for the development of unconventional oil and gas in China in the near future. Of these, the Ordos Basin and the Sichuan Basin are the main areas for increasing reserves and production. The progress in coalbed methane development is far from the initial expectations, and careful researches are required for its occurrence conditions and development technology. This paper suggests that a new round of evaluation for strategic succession of oil and gas production should be carried out as soon as possible, proposes 5 preferred areas and fields, sponsors the establishment of an exploration fund to support pioneering exploration projects, and proposes to supplement and revise the relevant norms of reserve appraisal based on market orientation.