Abstract:
Based on data from 630 cases of rainfall-induced landslides from 2010 to 2017 and hourly precipitation data from observation stations,the study analyzes the spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall-induced landslides in Guizhou province.The formulas containing five precipitation indexes in different time scales and cumulative probabilities of landslides by curve fitting are built,from which the thresholds for five precipitation indexes in different time scales with different probabilities are defined.The forecast model of rainfall-induced landslides is built and then further validated by using cases of rainfall-induced landslides in 2018.The results are as follows:Rainfall-induced landslides occur most frequently from May to July with the maximum frequency occurring in June about 48.6%,followed by July about 34.9%.Issue rainfall-induced landslides warning when R
1 h,R
3h,R
6 h,R
24 hand R
3 dare greater than or equal to 26.9,48.9,62.9,79.5,92.0 mm respectively.In forecast model,with the increasing of precipitation amount related to indexes in five time scales,the cumulative probabilities of rainfall-induced landslides show rapid increase in the middle while slow increase in the beginning and the end.The validation results indicate the accuracy of model and the usability of five precipitation indexes with the most accuracy by utilizing R
3 d.