张旭, 毛炜峄, 陈静, 李淑娟, 姚俊强. 新疆区域CRA40地面气温检验分析[J]. 沙漠与绿洲气象, 2022, 16(5): 15-23.
引用本文: 张旭, 毛炜峄, 陈静, 李淑娟, 姚俊强. 新疆区域CRA40地面气温检验分析[J]. 沙漠与绿洲气象, 2022, 16(5): 15-23.
ZHANG Xu, MAO Weiyi, CHEN Jing, LI Shujuan, YAO Junqiang. Temperature Error Test of CMA Global Atmospheric Reanalysis Data in Xinjiang[J]. Desert and Oasis Meteorology, 2022, 16(5): 15-23.
Citation: ZHANG Xu, MAO Weiyi, CHEN Jing, LI Shujuan, YAO Junqiang. Temperature Error Test of CMA Global Atmospheric Reanalysis Data in Xinjiang[J]. Desert and Oasis Meteorology, 2022, 16(5): 15-23.

新疆区域CRA40地面气温检验分析

Temperature Error Test of CMA Global Atmospheric Reanalysis Data in Xinjiang

  • 摘要: 将高空间分辨率的CRA40地面日平均气温插值到新疆区域105站,以105站实测气温为基准,用平均误差(ME)、均方根误差(RMSE)和相关系数(r)3项检验指标,对新疆区域CRA40地面气温数据质量进行评估,与ERA5气温检验结果进行比较。结果表明:(1)1981—2020年,新疆区域105站CRA40日平均气温与测站实况之间的相关系数rCRA40为0.973,通过0.001的显著性水平检验。新疆区域CRA40气温与实况比较,日平均气温的年平均值、年最大值和最小值分别相差0.12、0.02和1.94℃,日平均气温年最大、最小值出现日期完全一致。(2)逐年检验结果中,2004年之前MECRA40为负偏差,2005年之后为正偏差,无论是MECRA40和RMSECRA40还是RCRA40,都反映出2005—2020年新疆区域CRA40气温数据质量有所改进,较前期更加接近ERA5。(3)逐月检验结果中,新疆区域MECRA40绝对值和RMSECRA40均在冬季最大。结合ME与RMSE指标,在3月和10—11月新疆区域CRA40气温数据质量略优于ERA5。(4)逐日检验结果中,新疆区域MECRA40的绝对值在1.0℃以内的日数占全年的80.8%,RMSECRA40<3.0℃的日数占72.3%。以RMSE为指标,新疆区域CRA40数据质量优于ERA5的日数有79 d,集中在3—4月和10—11月;以相关系数r为指标,新疆区域CRA40数据质量优于ERA5的日数有22 d,其中21 d集中在3月。(5)逐站检验结果中,新疆区域105站中有49站的MECRA40绝对值较小,38站的RMSECRA40较小,有51站的rCRA40较大。整体上ERA5气温数据质量略优于CRA40,但是依据不同指标,CRA40气温数据质量占优的测站分别占36.2%~48.6%。(6)在分海拔高度的次级区域检验结果中,在Ⅰ区海拔<1 500 m的区域,ERA5气温数据质量整体占优;在Ⅱ区海拔1 500~2 000 m的山区,CRA40气温数据质量优于ERA5;在Ⅲ区海拔>2 000 m的山区,CRA40气温数据质量略差,与ERA5十分接近。

     

    Abstract: Based on the 105 national meteorological stations over Xinjiang during 1981-2020,the 2 meters temperature errors of (CRA40)data were analyzed by using the mean error (ME),root mean square error(RMSE)and correlation coefficient(r).The characteristics of spatio-temporal distribution of the errors show that the 40-year CRA40 reanalysis of the daily average temperature are significantly correlated with the observed station data,the corresponding correlation is 0.973,and passes the 0.001significance test.The CRA40 reanalysis daily average temperature is consistent with the observed data,the annual average,maximum and minimum values of daily average temperature differ by 0.12,0.02and 1.94℃,respectively,and the maximum and minimum daily average temperatures appear on the same date.The annual inspection results of MECRA40,RMSECRA40,and rCRA40show that the quality of CRA40 temperature data in Xinjiang from 2005 to 2020 has improved,and it is closer to ERA5 than before 2005.Before 2004,MECRA40was negative,and after 2005,it was positive.The monthly MECRA40and RMSECRA40inspection results show that the maximum temperature error in Xinjiang appears in the winter.In March,October and November,the temperature data error of CRA40 is slightly better than that of ERA5.The daily inspection results show that the number of days with the absolute value of MECRA40within 1.0℃account for 80.8%of the year,and the number of days with RMSECRA40less than3.0℃account for 72.3%of the year.Taking RMSE as an indicator,the data quality of CRA40 is better than that of ERA5 for 79 days,mainly in March-April and October-November.Using the correlation coefficient as an indicator,there are 22 days of CRA40 data quality better than ERA5,mainly in March.The results of the meteorological observation station-by-station inspection show that 49 of the105 stations in Xinjiang have better MECRA40,38 stations have better RMSECRA40,and 51 stations have worse rCRA40.On the whole,the air temperature data quality of ERA5 is slightly better than that of CRA40,but according to different indicators,the stations with superior air temperature data quality of CRA40 account for 36.2%-48.6%respectively.In areas with an altitude of less than 1 500 m,the temperature data quality of ERA5 is superior.In mountainous areas with an altitude of 1 500-2 000 m,the temperature data quality of CRA40 is better than that of ERA5.In mountainous areas with an altitude of more than 2 000 m,the quality of CRA40 temperature data is slightly worse,close to ERA5.

     

/

返回文章
返回