Abstract:
The forecast performance of Rapid-refresh Multi-scale Analysis and Prediction System-Central Asia V2.0(RMAPS-CA V2.0) in 2021 is objectively verified seasonally by using Model Evaluation Tools(MET)and further compared with RMAPS-CA V1.0 for the same period.The results show that,the system′s forecast deviation of 2 m temperature is mainly negative in winter and spring,mainly positive in summer and autumn,and the forecast performance is the best in autumn and the worst in winter.The average error of 10 m wind speed is between 0.5-1.0 m/s,and the forecast performance is the best in autumn and the worst in spring.The system′ s forecast deviation of high-altitude geopotential height is mainly negative in winter,and mainly positive in other seasons,the forecast performance is the best in winter and the worst in spring.The forecast deviation of high-altitude wind field is positive deviation below 400 hPa in winter and spring,and negative deviation above 400 hPa;negative deviation is dominant in summer and autumn,and the forecast performance is the best in spring and the worst in summer.The forecast deviation of the high-altitude temperature field is mainly negative in winter and positive in other seasons,and the forecast performance is the best in spring and the worst in summer.The sunny and rainy forecast effect of the system is good,and the precipitation score is the highest in winter and the lowest in summer.Judging from a precipitation case test,the system has improved the forecasting performance of national stations with heavy and moderate accumulated precipitation in 24 h,and the Threat Score(TS) of accumulated precipitation each 6 h has been slightly improved too.In 2021,the variation characteristics of the forecast deviations of various elements of the RMAPS-CA V2.0 system are similar to those of RMAPS-CA V1.0,and the overall forecasting capability is better than that of RMAPS-CA V1.0.