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郭冬, 吐尔逊·哈斯木, 吴秀兰, 张同文, 王兆鹏, 如先古丽·阿不都热合曼, 阿依姆古丽·赛麦提. 四种气象干旱指数在新疆区域适用性研究[J]. 沙漠与绿洲气象, 2022, 16(3): 90-101.
引用本文: 郭冬, 吐尔逊·哈斯木, 吴秀兰, 张同文, 王兆鹏, 如先古丽·阿不都热合曼, 阿依姆古丽·赛麦提. 四种气象干旱指数在新疆区域适用性研究[J]. 沙漠与绿洲气象, 2022, 16(3): 90-101.
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GUO Dong, Tursun Kasim, WU Xiulan, ZHANG Tongwen, WANG Zhaopeng, Ruxianguli Abudureheman, Ayimuguli Saimaiti. Applicability of Four Meteorological Drought Indices in Xinjiang[J]. Desert and Oasis Meteorology, 2022, 16(3): 90-101.
Citation: GUO Dong, Tursun Kasim, WU Xiulan, ZHANG Tongwen, WANG Zhaopeng, Ruxianguli Abudureheman, Ayimuguli Saimaiti. Applicability of Four Meteorological Drought Indices in Xinjiang[J]. Desert and Oasis Meteorology, 2022, 16(3): 90-101.
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四种气象干旱指数在新疆区域适用性研究

Applicability of Four Meteorological Drought Indices in Xinjiang

    摘要
  • 摘要: 利用降水量距平百分率（PA）、标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）、自适应帕默尔干旱指数（scPDSI）和气象干旱综合指数（MCI）四种气象干旱指数，进行变化趋势、相关性和干旱频率的分析，并与历史灾情对比，分析1961—2020年新疆不同区域干旱指数适用性。结果表明，scPDSI和MCI指数显著上升，干旱程度呈减轻趋势，干旱监测结果一致率高。PA指数变化趋势均平稳，但与其他三种干旱指数在全频域和高频域干旱监测结果一致率较好。SPEI指数在东疆和南疆东部区域显著下降，干旱程度呈加重趋势，与其它三种指数低频域的干旱监测结果存在显著负相关。干旱频率分析结果显示，PA指数的特旱等级判定存在异常情况，特别是南疆和东疆。与历史灾情对比结果显示，MCI指数对干旱灾害反映最好。总体上，MCI指数在新疆地区的适用性要优于其它三种干旱指数。近60 a来，全疆不同区域的MCI指数均呈上升趋势，各区域的干旱程度均有所减轻。空间上，新疆西北部发生干旱比南疆和东疆区域概率大。全疆不同区域在1962—1967、1974—1977、1989—1991、1997、2020年均发生干旱，并且主要集中在春夏两季，北疆西部和伊犁河谷区域易出现干旱灾情。

     

    Abstract: The applicability of the drought indices in different regions of Xinjiang from 1961 to 2020was studied by analyzing the variation trend,correlation,and drought frequency of four meteorological drought indices of the precipitation anomaly percentage（PA）,the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index（SPEI）,the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index（scPDSI） and meteorological drought comprehensive index（MCI）,and comparing them with historical disasters.The results showed that the scPDSI and MCI indices increased significantly,the drought degree showed a decreasing trend,and the consistency rate of the drought monitoring results was high.The variation trend of the PA index was stable,but it was in good agreement with the other three drought indices in the fullfrequency domain and high-frequency domain drought monitoring results.The SPEI index decreased significantly in eastern Xinjiang and the eastern part of southern Xinjiang,and the degree of the drought was increased,and there was a significant negative correlation with the other three indices in low-frequency domain drought monitoring results.The results of drought frequency analysis showed that there were abnormalities in the determination of PA special drought grade,especially in southern and eastern Xinjiang.Compare with the four indices and historical disasters,MCI was the best reflection of drought disasters.In general,the applicability of MCI in Xinjiang was better than the other three drought indices.In the past 60 years,MCI in different regions of Xinjiang showed an upward trend,and drought in each region was alleviated.Spatially,the probability of drought in northwestern Xinjiang was higher than that in southern and eastern Xinjiang.The probability of drought in northwest Xinjiang was higher than that in southern and eastern Xinjiang.Droughts occurred in different regions of Xinjiang during 1962-1967,1974-1977,1989-1991,1997,and 2020,and mainly occurred in spring and summer.Droughts were prone to occur in the western part of northern Xinjiang and the Ili River Valley.

     

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