Abstract:
Based on the hindcasts of SEAS5 (seasonal forecasting system 5) climate model and the observing temperature and precipitation data from 98 stations over Xinjiang,we evaluated the SEAS5 prediction ability of the monthly temperature and precipitation during 1993-2019 by using P
c,P
s,ACC and TCC scores.The results show that the SEAS5 has good performance in the temperature and precipitation prediction over Xinjiang.It is obvious that the spatial and temporal differences exist in the SEAS5 predictions.The model has relatively high skill for the temperature prediction from April to September and the precipitation prediction in April and from June to August in Xinjiang,especially.The highest P
cscore of temperature is in April(61.3),the highest P
sscore is in July(74.4),and the highest ACC score is in June (0.17);The highest P
cscore of precipitation occurs in April(58.7),the P
sscore occurs in July (72.1),and the ACC score occurs in April (0.16).Generally,the prediction skill of temperature in January,March,June and December over southern Xinjiang are higher than that in northern Xinjiang,but the prediction performance in July and September over the west of southern Xinjiang is lower than that in other regions.The SEAS5 prediction skill of precipitation over southern Xinjiang is higher than that over northern Xinjiang.