李雪洮, 段春锋, 杨智敏, 陈颖. SEAS5模式对新疆月尺度气温和降水的预测性能评估[J]. 沙漠与绿洲气象, 2022, 16(5): 31-38.
引用本文: 李雪洮, 段春锋, 杨智敏, 陈颖. SEAS5模式对新疆月尺度气温和降水的预测性能评估[J]. 沙漠与绿洲气象, 2022, 16(5): 31-38.
LI Xuetao, DUAN Chunfeng, YANG Zhimin, CHEN Ying. Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Evaluation of SEAS5 in Xinjiang[J]. Desert and Oasis Meteorology, 2022, 16(5): 31-38.
Citation: LI Xuetao, DUAN Chunfeng, YANG Zhimin, CHEN Ying. Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Evaluation of SEAS5 in Xinjiang[J]. Desert and Oasis Meteorology, 2022, 16(5): 31-38.

SEAS5模式对新疆月尺度气温和降水的预测性能评估

Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Evaluation of SEAS5 in Xinjiang

  • 摘要: 基于欧洲中期天气预报中心第五代季节预测系统SEAS5模式的历史回报数据和新疆98个气象站的气温、降水观测资料,利用距平符号一致率Pc、趋势异常综合评分Ps、距平相关系数ACC、时间相关系数TCC等方法,综合评估SEAS5模式对新疆1993—2019年月尺度气温和降水的预测性能。结果表明:SEAS5模式对新疆月气温、降水的总体预测性能较好,对降水趋势和量级有一定的预测能力。模式的预测性能存在明显的月际差异和空间差异。模式对新疆4—9月气温和4月、6—8月降水的预测性能较好。气温预测评分中,4月Pc最高(61.3分),7月Ps最高(74.4分),6月ACC最高(0.17)。降水预测评分中,4月Pc最高(58.7分),7月Ps最高(72.1分),4月ACC最高(0.16)。空间分布上,模式对1、3、6和12月南疆的气温预测性能普遍高于北疆,对7和9月南疆西部的预测性能低于其他地区。模式对南疆的降水预测性能普遍高于北疆。

     

    Abstract: Based on the hindcasts of SEAS5 (seasonal forecasting system 5) climate model and the observing temperature and precipitation data from 98 stations over Xinjiang,we evaluated the SEAS5 prediction ability of the monthly temperature and precipitation during 1993-2019 by using Pc,Ps,ACC and TCC scores.The results show that the SEAS5 has good performance in the temperature and precipitation prediction over Xinjiang.It is obvious that the spatial and temporal differences exist in the SEAS5 predictions.The model has relatively high skill for the temperature prediction from April to September and the precipitation prediction in April and from June to August in Xinjiang,especially.The highest Pcscore of temperature is in April(61.3),the highest Psscore is in July(74.4),and the highest ACC score is in June (0.17);The highest Pcscore of precipitation occurs in April(58.7),the Psscore occurs in July (72.1),and the ACC score occurs in April (0.16).Generally,the prediction skill of temperature in January,March,June and December over southern Xinjiang are higher than that in northern Xinjiang,but the prediction performance in July and September over the west of southern Xinjiang is lower than that in other regions.The SEAS5 prediction skill of precipitation over southern Xinjiang is higher than that over northern Xinjiang.

     

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