Abstract: In order to provide the forecast of the beginning flowering period of apricot flower more accurately,the key influence factors are statistically analyzed and the forecast model is established,according to the observation data of the beginning flowering period of apricot and the meteorological data from 1996 to 2020. The results showed that,the average flowering time of apricot flower was on April 5 th in Xinyuan county. The earliest flowering differed 28 days from the latest. And the beginning flowering was about 4 days in advance in the last 22 years. The meteorological factor had obvious influence on the initial flowering period,such as the temperature,relative humidity,sunshine,precipitation,ground temperature. By stepwise regression method,the prediction model of the beginning flowering period of apricot was established. Using the forecast model established by the key influence factors,the accuracy of the difference between the initial flowering period forecast value and the actual value in the back test was 63.6%,the error was 3 day,and the accuracy was 27.2%,and the initial flowering date in 2018-2020 were predicted,the difference between the predicted value and the observed were 2 days,1 day,3 days,which can provide a theoretical reference for the special meteorological service of flowering period.