曾晓青, 汤浩, 张俊兰, 代刊. ECMWF的QPF短期预报性能在新疆的评估[J]. 沙漠与绿洲气象, 2021, 15(4): 50-57.
引用本文: 曾晓青, 汤浩, 张俊兰, 代刊. ECMWF的QPF短期预报性能在新疆的评估[J]. 沙漠与绿洲气象, 2021, 15(4): 50-57.
ZENG Xiaoqing, TANG Hao, ZHANG Junlan, DAI Kan. Forecast Performance Evaluation of QPF from ECMWF in Xinjiang[J]. Desert and Oasis Meteorology, 2021, 15(4): 50-57.
Citation: ZENG Xiaoqing, TANG Hao, ZHANG Junlan, DAI Kan. Forecast Performance Evaluation of QPF from ECMWF in Xinjiang[J]. Desert and Oasis Meteorology, 2021, 15(4): 50-57.

ECMWF的QPF短期预报性能在新疆的评估

Forecast Performance Evaluation of QPF from ECMWF in Xinjiang

  • 摘要: 为有效掌握ECMWF模式的短期定量降水预报(QPF)产品在新疆地区的时空预报规律,为客观模式订正算法上提供有效依据,利用频率统计、非参数检验法、累积分布函数、公正预兆得分(ETS)等技术方法,从多角度深入分析了2016年9月—2019年12月12~36 h的QPF产品在新疆地区151个气象观测站点的预报性能。研究表明:QPF和实况降水观测(SPO)两组数据还存在很大差距,3 h-QPF在2.4 mm和24 h-QPF在11.0 mm以下存在明显的空报,3 h-QPF在16.5 mm和24 h-QPF在52.5 mm以上的大降水完全无预报能力,QPF中雨预报效果最好。新疆大雨以上降水主要发生在山脉附近,24 h-QPF产品在天山中脉和伊犁河谷地区的大降水预报比其他地区更具有指导意义。3 h-QPF在1天中8个时间的小、中、大雨的QPF频率在时间趋势上都与SPO存在相反情况。大雨以上的QPF与SPO是一个非线性、不确定的对应关系,建议先建立漏报模型,再进行频率匹配会更有效。

     

    Abstract: The main purpose of this research is to grasp effectively the spatial and temporal forecast laws of the short-term quantitative precipitation forecast(QPF) products of the ECMWF model in Xinjiang,and to provide an effective basis for the objective model correction algorithm. In this study,technical methods such as frequency statistics,non-parametric testing methods,cumulative distribution functions,and equitable threat score were used to analyze the forecast performance of 12 ~36 h QPF products from September 2016 to December 2019 based on 151 meteorological observation stations in Xinjiang. The results showed that:QPF products of the ECMWF exists a big gap with SPO data,there are obvious false forecast when 3 h-QPF below 2.4 mm,and obvious false alarms when 24 h-QPF below11.0 mm. 3 h-QPF above 16.5 mm and 24 h-QPF above 52.5 mm have no forecasting ability. The medium level rainfall forecast of QPF has the best effect. The precipitation above the heavy rain in Xinjiang mainly occurs in the mountains. The 24 h-QPF product has more reference value than other regions for heavy precipitation forecasts in the middle of Tianshan Mountains and the Ili River Valley.The 3 h-QPF frequency of small,medium,and heavy rain for 8 times in a day has the opposite situation with SPO in time trend. QPF and SPO above heavy rain are a non-linear and uncertain correspondence.It is recommended to establish a false negative model first,and then use the frequency matching method would be more effective.

     

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