张燕, 王雪姣, 张新, 易正炳, 赵雁君. 北疆绿洲农业区气象干旱指数的确定及干旱特征分析[J]. 沙漠与绿洲气象, 2024, 18(4): 133-142.
引用本文: 张燕, 王雪姣, 张新, 易正炳, 赵雁君. 北疆绿洲农业区气象干旱指数的确定及干旱特征分析[J]. 沙漠与绿洲气象, 2024, 18(4): 133-142.
ZHANG Yan, WANG Xuejiao, ZHANG Xin, YI Zhengbing, ZHAO Yanjun. Determination and Drought Characteristic of Meteorological Drought Indices in the Northern Xinjiang Agricultural Oasis Region[J]. Desert and Oasis Meteorology, 2024, 18(4): 133-142.
Citation: ZHANG Yan, WANG Xuejiao, ZHANG Xin, YI Zhengbing, ZHAO Yanjun. Determination and Drought Characteristic of Meteorological Drought Indices in the Northern Xinjiang Agricultural Oasis Region[J]. Desert and Oasis Meteorology, 2024, 18(4): 133-142.

北疆绿洲农业区气象干旱指数的确定及干旱特征分析

Determination and Drought Characteristic of Meteorological Drought Indices in the Northern Xinjiang Agricultural Oasis Region

  • 摘要: 气象干旱指数是衡量农业干旱程度的指标之一。选取降水距平百分率PA、标准化降水指数SPI、标准化降水蒸散指数SPEI,通过SPI和SPEI构建的新标准化降水蒸散指数nSPEI4种气象干旱指数,利用北疆绿洲农业区1961—2020年的气象数据,进行相关性、回归拟合、不同等级干旱频率分布分析,选出符合实际的干旱指数,进而分析研究区的气象干旱变化特征。结果表明:(1)PA的干旱标准低估了干旱程度,SPI对温度上升引起的干旱加剧不敏感,SPEI计算蒸散发选用的Thornthwaite方法会高估温度对干旱的影响,nSPEI克服了SPI和SPEI的不足,对研究区的适用性最优。(2)近60年,研究区气象干旱随时间呈波动性变化特征。进入21世纪以来,春、夏季表现为湿—干变化,秋季表现为弱的干—湿变化;春、夏季干旱由弱增强、秋季略减弱;以全局性干旱为主,春季局域性干旱增多,夏、秋季局域性干旱减少;春季特旱多,夏季重旱多。

     

    Abstract: Meteorological drought indice is one of the indices to measure the degree of agricultural drought.This study selected four drought indices:Precipitation Anomaly Percentage(PA),Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI),Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI),and New Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(n SPEI) constructed through SPI and SPEI.Utilizing meteorological data from 1961 to 2020 in the northern Xinjiang agricultural oasis region,comparisons were made in correlation,regression fitting,and the distribution of drought frequency at different levels to optimally select a drought indice that provides a more realistic description of drought conditions.Furthermore,the meteorological drought variation characteristics in the research area were analyzed.The results indicate:(1) The drought standard of PA underestimated drought severity,SPI was insensitive to drought exacerbation caused by temperature rise,and the Thornthwaite method used in SPEI calculation overestimated the impact of temperature on drought.At the same time,nSPEI overcame the shortcomings of SPI and SPEI,showing the best applicability to the research area.(2)Over nearly 60 years,meteorological drought in the research area exhibited fluctuating characteristics over time.Since the 21st century,spring and summer have shown wet-dry variations,while autumn exhibited a weak dry-wet variation. In terms of drought intensity,spring and summer have strengthened,while autumn has slightly weakened.On the drought scale,drought has been predominant,with localized drought increasing in spring and decreasing in summer and autumn.Regarding drought frequency,extreme droughts are more common in spring,and severe droughts are more common in summer.

     

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