Abstract: Based on the simulation results of the regional climate model RegCM4 with a 25 km resolution in East Asia,we established a regional disaster flood risk assessment model by analyzing climate disaster risk and vulnerability of population and GDP in north China during the base period（1986-2005）.This model was utilized to predict changes in flood disaster risk for near-term （2020-2035）,medium-term （2046-2065）,and long-term （2080-2098） periods in north China under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.The findings indicate that:（1） RegCM4 demonstrates good simulation ability for assessing flood hazard indexes such as R_{20 mm}and R_{x5 day}during the base period in north China.Flood hazard risks at level III or above were observed primarily in Beijing,Tianjin,southern and eastern Hebei,as well as southern Shanxi.（2）Under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios,there will be an increase in R_{20 mm}and R_{x5 day}flood disaster risks across most areas of north China during the next three different time periods;this increase is more pronounced under the RCP8.5 scenario.Risk levels Ⅲ or above are the highest during the medium term for both scenarios.