陈颖, 杨智敏, 张旭. 增暖背景下新疆冷冬与极端低温事件的系[J]. 沙漠与绿洲气象, 2022, 16(5): 1-7.
引用本文: 陈颖, 杨智敏, 张旭. 增暖背景下新疆冷冬与极端低温事件的系[J]. 沙漠与绿洲气象, 2022, 16(5): 1-7.
CHEN Ying, YANG Zhimin, ZHANG Xu. The Connection Between Cold Winter and Extreme Low Temperature Events in Xinjiang under the Background of Warming[J]. Desert and Oasis Meteorology, 2022, 16(5): 1-7.
Citation: CHEN Ying, YANG Zhimin, ZHANG Xu. The Connection Between Cold Winter and Extreme Low Temperature Events in Xinjiang under the Background of Warming[J]. Desert and Oasis Meteorology, 2022, 16(5): 1-7.

增暖背景下新疆冷冬与极端低温事件的系

The Connection Between Cold Winter and Extreme Low Temperature Events in Xinjiang under the Background of Warming

  • 摘要: 为了客观准确地描述新疆冬季偏冷的特征,基于新疆99个国家气象观测站1981—2020年逐日最低气温、日平均气温和欧洲数值预报中心再分析资料(ERA5)逐日最低气温再分析资料,对于冬季气温异常偏低年、冷冬年、强冷冬年以及单站极端低温事件、区域性持续极端低温事件进行了识别。结果表明:1981—2020年,新疆区域冬季平均气温异常偏低年与冷冬年有差异。新疆冬季单站极端低温事件总体呈减少趋势;12月和2月的出现频次高于1月,但12月减少速率大于2月,1月总体呈增加趋势。新疆共出现53次冬季区域性持续极端低温事件,其中,全疆型出现频次最高,北疆型次之,南疆型第三,山区型最少;出现频次最多的是持续10~15 d的事件;新疆冬季区域性持续极端低温事件发生频次减少,但单站事件持续时间并没有明显减少,而且影响范围在扩大。当冬季极端低温事件出现频次高、持续时间长时,50%以上的测站出现冷冬(强冷冬)时,区域内冬季平均气温一致偏低的概率较大;当冬季极端低温事件出现频次低、持续时间在10 d以内时,出现冷冬的测站很少或没有,冬季平均气温一致偏低的概率较小。

     

    Abstract: Based on daily average temperature and daily lowest temperature,and ERAS daily lowest temperature reanalysis data from the 99 national meteorological observation stations during the winter of 1981-2020,abnormal low winter temperature years,cold winter,strong cold winter,single station extreme cold temperature events and regional continuous extreme low temperature events were identified.The results are as follows:the average winter temperature in Xinjiang was abnormally different from the cold winter year in Xinjiang during 1981-2020.The extreme low temperature events of single stations in winter in Xinjiang were generally decreasing,the frequency in December and February was higher than it in January,but the slip in December was greater than in February,and the overall increasing trend was observed in January.There were 53 regional sustained extreme low temperature events occurred in Xinjiang,the whole Xinjiang type appeared the highest frequency among them,the frequency of the northern Xinjiang type was more than that of southern Xinjiang type,mountain type was the least,and the most frequent episodes were the events lasting 10-15 d.The frequency of regional sustained extreme low temperature events in Xinjiang in winter had been decreased,but the duration of a single event had not been significantly reduced,and the scope of influence was expanding.Four different types of cold winter were summarized based on the average and extreme conditions of winter temperature.When the survey stations with high frequency of extreme low temperature events in winter,long duration and more than 50% stations appearing cold winter(strong cold winter),the probability of the consistent lower average temperature in winter in the region is large.When the frequency of extreme low temperature events in winter is low,the duration is within10 d,there are few or no measurement stations in cold winter,the probability of the average temperature in winter being uniformly low is small.

     

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