Abstract:
Based on the day-by-day mortality data and concurrent meteorological data from Yuanjiang,Chengdu,and Xi’an city,the effects of temperature on the risk of death from respiratory diseases in the elderly in three cities with different climatic zones were investigated by using generalized additive and distributional lagged nonlinear models,and then the health losses caused by respiratory diseases were quantified using attributable fractions(A
Fs) in the different temperature bands,and the effect of seasonal climate convergence among the three places was quantified.The mortality risk reduction effect was obtained from the seasonal climate convergence among the three cities.The results suggested that:(1)The relationship between temperature and deaths from respiratory diseases in the Yuanjiang,Chengdu and Xi’an cities showed a “W”,inverse “J”and inverse“J”distribution,respectively.(2)The effect of temperature on deaths from respiratory diseases in the elderly in Yuanjiang was more prominent with high temperature immediacy,and for the elderly in Chengdu and Xi’an city,it was more pronounced with the laged low temperature.(3)The AFscaused by temperature in Yuanjiang,Chengdu and Xi’an were 9.64%,11.25% and 18.26%,respectively,with the cold effect generating a greater risk of death from respiratory diseases.Further subdividing the temperatures into four temperature bands(extreme low temperature,moderate low temperature,moderate high temperature,and extreme high temperature),moderate low temperature caused the highest cumulative number of excess deaths,which was closely related to its high frequency of occurrence.(4)If the elderly in Yuanjiang,Chengdu and Xi’an city have the willingness and conditions to take migratory birds seasonal climate tendency to avoid the summer heat or cold recreation,it might reduce the health risks arising from the local seasonal discomfort climate to a certain extent.